Comments on: 4-4-2 vs 4-5-1 – The Formation Challenge http://astonvillacentral.com/2009/09/4-4-2-vs-4-5-1-the-formation-challenge/ Tue, 22 May 2012 12:18:21 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.2 By: Dan http://astonvillacentral.com/2009/09/4-4-2-vs-4-5-1-the-formation-challenge/comment-page-1/#comment-188 Dan Wed, 30 Sep 2009 17:01:38 +0000 http://astonvillacentral.com/?p=2237#comment-188 i source most, but not all, of my stats from ESPN. they create some interesting visuals, the average position among them, using flash. for instance, the blackburn game:- http://soccernet.espn.go.com/gamecast?id=269770&page=features&cc=5901&league=ENG.1 you'll find the heat maps at ESPN. interestingly, there's a bug on the average position where the away team are shown in mirror - right sided players on the left and vice versa - but the heat maps are the right way round. it's one of the reasons why i create my own graphics. the telegraph reports used to have a nice flash tool, but these days they've relegated it to be a fraction of the size that it was and slung it in the bottom right corner like some after thought. the guardian have their chalkboards, which i also use heavily, although they're far from infallible and they seem more focused on the path of the ball and attaching the players to that rather than the other way around. the chalkboards can be useful in demonstrating that there may be a lot of passing going on in a 5 man midfield, but the majority of it is sideways and backwards. ok, possession is retained and you can't win without the ball, but you also can't win if you don't move forward at some point. i source most, but not all, of my stats from ESPN. they create some interesting visuals, the average position among them, using flash.

for instance, the blackburn game:- http://soccernet.espn.go.com/gamecast?id=269770&page=features&cc=5901&league=ENG.1

you’ll find the heat maps at ESPN. interestingly, there’s a bug on the average position where the away team are shown in mirror – right sided players on the left and vice versa – but the heat maps are the right way round. it’s one of the reasons why i create my own graphics.

the telegraph reports used to have a nice flash tool, but these days they’ve relegated it to be a fraction of the size that it was and slung it in the bottom right corner like some after thought.

the guardian have their chalkboards, which i also use heavily, although they’re far from infallible and they seem more focused on the path of the ball and attaching the players to that rather than the other way around.

the chalkboards can be useful in demonstrating that there may be a lot of passing going on in a 5 man midfield, but the majority of it is sideways and backwards. ok, possession is retained and you can’t win without the ball, but you also can’t win if you don’t move forward at some point.

]]> By: James Williams http://astonvillacentral.com/2009/09/4-4-2-vs-4-5-1-the-formation-challenge/comment-page-1/#comment-187 James Williams Wed, 30 Sep 2009 09:30:21 +0000 http://astonvillacentral.com/?p=2237#comment-187 I'd be interested to see heat maps (though you're right not to get too statistics-heavy on us here!) - are they about on the actim website or something? But you are absolutely right that your pics show how formation can't be as big a factor as we believe. Personally, I think the biggest difference tactics changes (however subtle) bring about is the style of play we end up playing. When Villa are in the mindset of playing one up front, even if in practise the actual average positions change very little, the way we structure play in midfield is very different (although who knows what the statistics might actually say!). One factor is that with Carew or Heskey up front, whether as sole striker or as part of a pair, we do play the ball up to them long fairly often as an easy option, but with Gabby on his own, our midfield play is forced to be much more intelligent - resulting in better approach play, more space to move forward into, and more nervous defences. So even if when we play 4-5-1, it's not actually that different positionally to 4-4-2, it's the way we play that changes things. But of course I don't have statistics to back any of that up - what you have done brilliantly is to challenge the assumptions we make about formations! I’d be interested to see heat maps (though you’re right not to get too statistics-heavy on us here!) – are they about on the actim website or something?
But you are absolutely right that your pics show how formation can’t be as big a factor as we believe. Personally, I think the biggest difference tactics changes (however subtle) bring about is the style of play we end up playing. When Villa are in the mindset of playing one up front, even if in practise the actual average positions change very little, the way we structure play in midfield is very different (although who knows what the statistics might actually say!).
One factor is that with Carew or Heskey up front, whether as sole striker or as part of a pair, we do play the ball up to them long fairly often as an easy option, but with Gabby on his own, our midfield play is forced to be much more intelligent – resulting in better approach play, more space to move forward into, and more nervous defences. So even if when we play 4-5-1, it’s not actually that different positionally to 4-4-2, it’s the way we play that changes things. But of course I don’t have statistics to back any of that up – what you have done brilliantly is to challenge the assumptions we make about formations!

]]> By: Dan http://astonvillacentral.com/2009/09/4-4-2-vs-4-5-1-the-formation-challenge/comment-page-1/#comment-183 Dan Tue, 29 Sep 2009 14:56:17 +0000 http://astonvillacentral.com/?p=2237#comment-183 you're absolutely correct James. Milner & Ash appear to occupy much narrower positions than reality precisely because they spend time on opposite sides of the pitch. and as you say, as new players are introduced or the system shuffled it will also influence their average position, although less so the further into the game the changes are made. a heat map reflects individual players' positions more accurately, but you really need one for each player and i've no intention of going there!! i agree with you entirely about the weaknesses, but it's the same situation for all six graphics. surely if the formation were the factor in the losses that some would have you believe it would be clear in the graphics which were the 4-4-2's and which were the 4-5-1's? lol yes, damo's sudden appreciation of actim is quite interesting!! you’re absolutely correct James.

Milner & Ash appear to occupy much narrower positions than reality precisely because they spend time on opposite sides of the pitch. and as you say, as new players are introduced or the system shuffled it will also influence their average position, although less so the further into the game the changes are made.

a heat map reflects individual players’ positions more accurately, but you really need one for each player and i’ve no intention of going there!!

i agree with you entirely about the weaknesses, but it’s the same situation for all six graphics. surely if the formation were the factor in the losses that some would have you believe it would be clear in the graphics which were the 4-4-2′s and which were the 4-5-1′s?

lol yes, damo’s sudden appreciation of actim is quite interesting!!

]]> By: James Williams http://astonvillacentral.com/2009/09/4-4-2-vs-4-5-1-the-formation-challenge/comment-page-1/#comment-182 James Williams Tue, 29 Sep 2009 13:53:23 +0000 http://astonvillacentral.com/?p=2237#comment-182 That doesn't tell the whole story... Young & Milner swap wings every now and then, plus other players are likely to 'drift' into other positions (eg. Gabby will go pretty much everywhere in the opposition half if playing as a lone striker). Substitutions (especially those that cause the team to reshuffle about) will mess these stats up too. Perhaps a more helpful statistic, given that we're enjoying all the diagrams and statistics (which are great by the way - notice that thevillablog.co.uk has just added a statistics section too - you got here first!), would some kind of 'mode' average (as oppososed to mean) of position - ie. the most common position(s) taken up by each player. Then we'd have a clearer picture of where players feel 'anchored' to rather than just the centre of point of their wanderings throughout a match. By the way, I love this site generally - it provides a brilliant alternative view and approach to the more popular villa blogs out there. Keep it going. That doesn’t tell the whole story… Young & Milner swap wings every now and then, plus other players are likely to ‘drift’ into other positions (eg. Gabby will go pretty much everywhere in the opposition half if playing as a lone striker). Substitutions (especially those that cause the team to reshuffle about) will mess these stats up too.
Perhaps a more helpful statistic, given that we’re enjoying all the diagrams and statistics (which are great by the way – notice that thevillablog.co.uk has just added a statistics section too – you got here first!), would some kind of ‘mode’ average (as oppososed to mean) of position – ie. the most common position(s) taken up by each player. Then we’d have a clearer picture of where players feel ‘anchored’ to rather than just the centre of point of their wanderings throughout a match.

By the way, I love this site generally – it provides a brilliant alternative view and approach to the more popular villa blogs out there. Keep it going.

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