Aston Villa News 24/7Refusing to give up hope for fourth place as long as it remained possible, but knowing we weren’t favourites, the question of who I’d prefer take that place if we could not has been at the back of my mind for a little while now. I’ve made no secret of my disdain for City’s “throw money at the problem” approach to breaching the barrier of 5th place, so it may seem like a no brainer to favour Tottenham.
Not quite. There’s something about Tottenham that just doesn’t sit right with me, never has. I can’t quite put my finger on it, but it may be that there’s just something of the wide boy about the club and, if so, that’s not something that Mr Redknapp will alleviate in any way.
However, Spurs are a big club, they’re a member of the 7 clubs ever-present in the Premier League – along with ourselves – and in terms of annual revenue, they’re some distance ahead of those of us who have laboured without the benefits of income from the Champions League.
They earned £27m more than us in 2009/10. The prospect of them pushing further ahead doesn’t thrill me at all, but at least that extra revenue wouldn’t be heading to Manchester.
While I don’t approve of City’s methodology, I have to confess to being at least a little intrigued about who they’re going to go after in the summer. The general consensus seems to be that whether they finish 4th or not, they’re going to spend a lot of money before next season. It may be that question marks will remain over the motivation of any world class players who arrive without Champions League on offer, but that may also mean that a few decent players head out the exit door.
Ultimately, I try to put such emotive views to one side and consider who would benefit us most in 4th place, both for next season and the ones that follow. I’ve come to the conclusion that it’s Tottenham, here’s why.
To Know The Future, You Must Understand The Past
I’m not falling into the trap of making predictions, but I’d certainly look to Everton’s recent experience and hope that history repeats itself a little with Tottenham in their place.
Everton finished the 2004/05 season in 4th place, 3 points ahead of Liverpool. As a brief nod to my recent post on position being relative, it’s worth noting that Everton’s 61 points was enough for 4th place in 2005 mostly because of Liverpool’s appalling away record. The red side of the city lost no less than 11 games on the road that season, only Portsmouth, Norwich and Southampton lost more.
By all means give Moyes the plaudits he deserves, but don’t lose sight of the fact that had Liverpool managed to find a single goal at each of their matches at Bolton and Crystal Palace, plus the game at home to Birmingham City they would have turned 1-0 losses into 1-1 draws and the Reds would have taken fourth, not Everton. 61 points is a good performance, but it wouldn’t have achieved 4th place in any season since.
If Tottenham do snatch 4th this season, at least they will have earned it. With 1 game remaining this season, Everton could finish with 61 points once again if they win their last game at home to Portsmouth, but this time it will be worth no more than 8th place.
But it’s Everton’s 2005/06 season that interests me. Moyes spent a lot of money in the summer – he possibly had plenty left over from the sale of Wayne Rooney the year before – bringing several players in for new campaign. Some of those signings were more successful than others, but that’s normal, there’s no need to scrutinise that here.
Getting to the Champions League from 4th place means entering the competition at the 3rd and final qualifying round and they were joined at that point by Man Utd, who finished 3rd, and Liverpool, who were spared the indignity of the UEFA Cup by a late rule change that gave teams the right to defend their titles.
Unfortunately for Everton, it all went wrong. Their first game of the season was the 1st leg of the Champions League 3rd Qualifying Round at home to Villarreal. They lost 2-1. They kicked off their Premier League campaign four days later with a 2-0 loss at home to Man Utd.
They did manage to chalk up a 1-0 victory over Bolton the following weekend, but during the week afterward they went to the El Madrigal and failed to find the victory they needed over the Yellow Submarine to enter the group stage of the Champions League. In fact, they lost 2-1 again and dropped into the UEFA Cup at that competition’s final qualification round before the group stage.
Back in England, their form didn’t improve as they lost their next two league matches to Fulham and Portsmouth, both 1-0. Not ideal form to take to Romania to face Dinamo Bucharest in the first leg of their last chance to attain European competition that season. They were beaten 5-1.
Back to England, two more losses in the league, this time to Arsenal and Wigan. The Romanian team could not have been more confident coming to Goodison knowing that their opponents needed to beat them 4-0 to advance and had by then lost 6 straight games.
Everton did win, but the scoreline didn’t change after Tim Cahill’s 28th minute opener and they were unceremoniously dumped out of all European competition with an aggregate loss of 5-2 to a side that would go on to finish bottom of Group F.
Returning to the run of poor form, Everton then lost back to back games on the road against Man City and then Tottenham before securing an unlikely point at home to Chelsea. They occupied the very foot of the table with 4 points from 9 games, had fallen through the trap door of both European competitions and would be dumped out of the League Cup by Boro before they’d finally find a win at St Andrews.
It’s fair to say they were in bad shape and there can be no finer testament to David Moyes managerial skills or the benefits that can be derived from sticking by the gaffer than the fact he dragged them up to 11th by the end of the season. However, before lavishing too much praise on the Scot, he was, after all, the man who lead them into the mess, let’s not forget who was at the helm at the time.
Can History Repeat Itself?
Well, if Tottenham finish in 4th, I hope not. No, really, I do. They’re better placed to withstand the rigours of a 4 fronted campaigned than Everton were, but it would still be quite handy from a domestic perspective to have them distracted with 6 games in the group stage of the Champions League at least.
After that, I’d be extremely pleased if they followed Liverpool’s path this year to failure at the final hurdle before the Europa League final and desperately chasing European qualification of any kind in the Premier League. That would be ideal.
As for City, if they don’t finish 4th, but still spend ridiculous sums in the transfer market over the summer, I’ve a feeling that patience will be in short supply around Eastlands next season. Any notable patch of poor form and/or early exists from competitions will inevitably lead to the manager being shown the door, player/fan unrest and general hilarity not conducive to success.
Lather. Rinse. Repeat.
All of which will hopefully leave us as clear a path to Champions League qualification as we could possibly hope for. Of course, we have to deal with the Europa League ourselves, but I’ll save that for next time.
Two Horse Race
So, now we know it’s a two horse race between City and Spurs, who would you want to see take that 4th place?
- Redknapp is short on European pedigree. He’s a good manager and generally fairly astute tactically, but it’s not unknown for him to get it wrong. Could he be exposed on the European stage or will it be a platform where he gets to show how good he really is?
- Whoever finishes 4th will enter the Champions League at the final qualification round, or ‘Play Off Round’ as it’s known. This was effectively the round that Everton fell at, but it’s a little different now as it features 20 teams split into 2 groups of 10 – champions from smaller nations and non-champions from larger nations. Whoever finishes 4th in the Premier League will obviously be in the latter group.
The 10 teams in each group are split in 2 groups; seeded and non-seeded and then drawn so that each seeded team plays a non-seeded team. And here lies a key difference between City and Tottenham.
The seeding is determined by the UEFA coefficient scores and, at the moment, City’s score is 33.371, but Tottenham are ranked much higher with 56.371. Speaking hypothetically, had one of them made it into this year’s competition in place of Arsenal; Man City would have been unseeded and drawn against one of:-
- Lyon
- Sporting Lisbon
- Panathinaikos
- Stuttgart
- Fiorentina
While Tottenham would have been seeded and drawn against one of the following unseeded teams:-
- Fiorentina
- Atlético Madrid
- Celtic
- Anderlecht
- FC Timisoara
No easy games, but interesting to note a Champions League semi-finalist and a Europa League finalist among the teams in the play off round. City would potentially face a theoretically more difficult draw than Tottenham would in the play off round.
For the record: our coefficient is 25.871 and there’s no doubt that we would have been unseeded for the Champions League play-off round had we finished 4th in the Premier League.
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7 Comments to “Why I’m Backing Tottenham For Champions League”
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It’s a really difficult one for me.
I’ve long regarded Spurs and Man city, along with Everton as our closest rivals. (Arsenal were also in that group 20 years ago, but of course they’re on another planet these days.)
All pretty big 2nd tier clubs.
I agree with your views on City, Lescott for £23 mill(?) was a joke and imo made a mockery of the game, for example. Decent player and I know about paying over the odds, but that’s twice what he was worth by my reckoning.
So my immediate thought is to go with Spurs getting CL.
But given their already significantly higher turnover, I fear they too will be stealing a march on us if they get it.
They’ll no doubt spend quite big in the summer and one thing I do like about melted welly face is his transfer dealings. As you hint, there’s something decidedly dodgy about him, but he does have a knack of actually getting players that seem, for whatever reason, beyond us.
Hence I think that they will have the squad to cope with CL and might actually do quite well.
Whilst this puts increased pressure on them (and I agree it would make it easier for us in the league), let’s say they were to get to the quarters and get top 4 again next season.
I’d then see another big investment next summer and we’ll be falling even further behind.
And we know City are going to pile money in regardless, so that’s two clubs we’re struggling to keep up with, along with the usual top 4 (Liverpool are bound to get some sort of investment imo).
Which perhaps presents a case of wanting City to qualify, just so Spurs don’t run away from us?
I can’t decide either way, but I think it’s fair to say that Wednesday’s game between the two has to be the biggest game this season by some distance and I can only wish them both the best of luck, sadly
Can’t fault your reasoning there at all, it’s a tricky one.
One thing I forgot to mention; Redknapp’s fairly limited in terms of European experience and when he gets his team wrong (like at old trafford), boy does he get it wrong. Just a thought.
The other thing is that I’ve said for a long time that I’d be happy to see anyone else get top four just to see how whoever misses out deals with the reduction in revenue the following season. I got my wish, looks like Liverpool could be heading into a nasty downward spiral.
I think City will nick fourth because they have that little bit more quality than Spurs.
As for who I would like to see getting it, it’s a difficult one. I really dislike Harry but I wouldn’t mind seeing Spurs sneak it so that the great wheeler dealer manager could have his ability exposed at the pinnacle of European football.
I know this is not a great reason but its as good as I can muster. Thinking of Spurs or City in the Champs League is sickening but at least the Sky Four monopoly has been breached once more.
As for Villa next season our goals for column has to be addressed. It was way down on our rivals this season and until we get a twenty goal a season man we are always fighting a losing battle. We are also crying out for a quality holding midfielder. Petrov is a quality footballer but simply doesn’t have the physical attributes for this role in the modern game. He can still be an important squad player for us.
of course, we have to remember that placing 4th is just a shot at getting into the champions league through a two-legged match against who knows who?
in fact, i should have checked that for the post. there’s an interesting difference between city and tottenham there. i’ll add an edit to the bottom i think.
and yeah, you’ve identified exactly the two positions i’m referring to when i say that we’re two players short of real quality. petrov isn’t what we need in the middle, possibly one of the most wishy washy captains in the league if i’m honest.
i do agree that we need a goal scorer, but i sometimes wonder if that’s not just leaping to obvious conclusions. we’re short on goals, we need a striker. fine logic, but who was the striker that scored all the goals in 2007/08? i’d like to get *that* guy back!
“The other thing is that I’ve said for a long time that I’d be happy to see anyone else get top four just to see how whoever misses out deals with the reduction in revenue the following season. I got my wish, looks like Liverpool could be heading into a nasty downward spiral.”
“Thinking of Spurs or City in the Champs League is sickening but at least the Sky Four monopoly has been breached once more.”
I agree with both of you, it’s the one positive.
I said previously that I think Pool will get some sort of investment, but I’ve been reading a few of their blogs of late and I detect a sort of resignation amongst their fans.
I’m really not sure how I’d feel about them going into a major slump, glee or sadness, but no team can stay at the top forever, I guess (thank god).
Their big problem is even if they got £100 mill investment, could FSW (if indeed he stays) be trusted to not waste it? His previous record isn’t brilliant is it?
Next season is the big one for them. If they don’t bounce back I’d agree, they’ll be in serious trouble.
“As for Villa next season our goals for column has to be addressed. It was way down on our rivals this season and until we get a twenty goal a season man we are always fighting a losing battle.”
Absolutely.
According to Wiki, Gabby has 13 in 35 league games, JC has 10 in 32.
As much as I like both, that’s just not good enough.
It’s easy to assume that Spurs will struggle like Everton…but the fact is this…they won’t have to buy many players this off-sason.
I think I’ve pointed it out on here before…but they have alot of talent out on loan. Jamie O’Hara, Robbie Keane, Giovani Dos Santos, Kyle Naughton, Alan Hutton, and Adel Taraabt…
Provided they hold onto most of their squad…although guys like Keane, Bentley, and Gudjonsen could be gone…they are already very deep, and injury has already allowed them to blood alot of youngsters like Danny Rose, and the fantastic Gareth Bale.
If any team outside the Big Four could handle CL football, it’s Spurs.
Also – now that Arsenal lost today, 3rd is still slightly in reach for Spurs.
That said – they won’t grossly inflate the transfer market like City will…and that’s why I’d prefer them in 4th!
i don’t think anyone is assuming that they will struggle, i’m certainly not, i just *hope* they will! i did say that they’re in a stronger position than everton were and only use them as an illustration of how it can all unravel if they don’t get it right. call it a perverse sense of optimism if you like.
they have the biggest list of players out on loan that i’ve ever seen and there’s one very important reason for that… they don’t take part in the reserve league anymore. the long term effect of that policy change remains to be seen.
i’m not convinced that it’s the smart thing to do, but time will tell. it could be a stroke of genius, but i hope not as i like the reserve league.
although not everyone out on loan is out on loan for the same reasons…. i wouldn’t put keane in that bracket for instance. he’ll surely be gone in the summer.