Aston Villa News 24/7James Milner
Two years ago, Martin O’Neill followed up on his significant interest in James Milner. While I wouldn’t say everything was rosy in Tyneside at the time, James was still a major asset for Newcastle. Long story short, MON was willing to pay £12m and Newcastle were willing to sell at that price. That’s what he was worth to us.
A typically vocal minority elected to deride that transaction, Milner wasn’t “worth” any more than £8m. MON clearly had no idea what he was doing in the transfer market. Some sections of the Newcastle supporters laughed up their sleeves, or they would have if they wore shirts. They were quick to point out his less than impressive scoring and assist statistics, seemingly oblivious to the fact that those stats were acquired in a poor Newcastle side. A side that would suffer relegation a season later. Things would be different in a claret and blue shirt.
Now, two years later. Milner has had two great seasons at Villa, particularly the last one, winning the PFA Young Player of the Year and a place at the World Cup in the process. 6 goals and 8 assists in his first season, 11 goals and 15 assists last time out illustrate just how short sighted the Newcastle fans were. Man City agree and submitted an opening bid of £20m for his services, making the Villa fans who howled at his £12m price tag two years ago look equally blind.
As we all know, that bid was rejected and has prompted the latest debate about what the player is worth. I’ve seen comparisons with other players, today it was Javier Mascherano. Mascherano may well be moving on in a mooted £25m deal, how can Milner also be worth £25m then? By the same token, looking to the Lescott transaction for a comparative valuation is even more ludicrous. In fact, citing the Lescott to City saga as an example of anything beyond the vulgarity of City’s approach is an exercise in intellectual dishonesty as far as I’m concerned.
Mascherano, Lescott et al are largely irrelevant. Milner is worth what City are willing to pay and what Villa are willing to sell at. And yes, since City are throwing obscene amounts of money around in the transfer market, we’ll milk every last penny out of them. City fans shouldn’t bother with the faux indignation at this practice, it makes them look small minded.
Similarly, I’ve seen Villa fans calculate his value based on the £12m we paid Newcastle. If we paid that amount, he must surely be worth at least £18m now, right? Well, not if he was only “worth” £8m when we bought him, you can’t have it both ways.
Once again, it will come down to how much City are willing to pay and how much we are willing to sell at. Clearly MON has signalled that he wants to move things along and doesn’t wish to play cat and mouse any longer. Fortunately, he also showed everyone paying attention two years ago that he wouldn’t undersell a key player, even if they very publicly throw their toys out of the pram, as Gareth Barry did. City should know that if they don’t meet our valuation, we’ll happily keep Milner at the club for another season. The ball is in their court.
Up until yesterday my position was that while I fully appreciate that £20m was a lot of money, I’d sooner keep the player. That was partly based on my understanding of what motivated James Milner, but MON’s revelation that Milner pretty much wanted out from the end of the last season changes things. In short, I got him very wrong and I’ll happily take the money now.
If the deal doesn’t go through, while I still feel we made an important statement in keeping Barry for an extra season, we also learned that he wasn’t half the player when his heart wasn’t in it. The theory that he might continue to play well motivated by being in the shop window, so to speak, didn’t hold much water. A couple of days ago I may have argued that Milner was different. Today, not so much.
Spending The Profits
I’m slightly disappointed that among those in Villa circles advocating Milner’s sale, some have expressed reservations about MON’s ability to spend the money wisely. To me, this absolutely beggars belief. The very man with the vision to apparently spend above the odds on the player, turn him into the Young Player of the Year, make him a stalwart of the national side, a player that City are willing to bid in excess of £20m for, can’t be trusted? Really?
You want to question the man who had the vision to bring Ashley Young to the club in an eyebrow raising £9.65m, also picking up a Young Player of the Year Award, because of the likes of Marlon Harewood or Nicky Shorey? Talk about missing the big picture.
For me, I trust MON implicitly. He won’t be without mistakes, no manager is, even the greats, and hindsight is always 20/20, I’d also like to see a little more sophistication in our transfer targets, but the point is that MON gets the job done and he can achieve that with a team of kids for all I care.
One thing is for certain, Aston Villa were going places before James Milner arrived and we’ll continue on without him regardless.
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4 Comments to “Buying Houses, The Futility Of Player Valuations And James Milner”
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I quite like that house analogy.
The house round the corner is Joleon Lescott, as much as you don’t agree.
My house is worth a lot more than that house round the corner imo and I don’t want to sell hence I want substantially more for it.
I’m not going to keep up with that, but no doubt you know what I mean.
If City were vulgar enough to pay that amount for Lescott, they can do the same for us.
I can’t quite work out what is currently now going on, because as you are no doubt aware, word is going round that Milner is fuming at the suggestion that MON has said he wants to leave and that he has turned down contract negotiations.
My guess is that MON has said this as a hint to city, because he wants to get things moving one way or the other, so he knows where he stands.
(I think I said on here before that leaving it until the very last minute would kills lots of club’s plans).
I’d also guess that City know the exact requirements for us to do a deal.
Which means that maybe we’ve all got Milner wrong in thinking he wants out?
If what I think is correct (and I think it is not far off the mark, seeing as we know MON seems to be able to fall out with himself and is quite happy with confrontation), Milner won’t be with us for long.
I still stand by my previous £30M or £20m and Ireland, no problem.
Otherwise, he stays, if we afford to tell them to do one.
ha! no lescott is not the house around the corner!! the trouble with setting the bar by that transaction is it practically makes every player in the premiership worth 8 figures!! it was a freak of nature and everton did extremely well. that’s all.
i don’t know what to make of the claim that milner & his agent are denying MON’s version of events. MON has sung his praises for 2 years and made all the right noises before the end of the season about getting him a new deal. it’s clear he was part of the long term plans.
he’s obviously trying to force things along now, but why would he outright lie to push his main man out? milner’s position at villa is pretty much untenable now. MON’s a smart man, he knew what he was doing.
the truth is probably somewhere in between the two, but milner’s been coy and noncommittal for far too long now. if he wanted to go, i wouldn’t expect him to say so publicly, but if he wanted to stay he could surely have said so and it would have been the club’s fault if they could find a deal.
“the truth is probably somewhere in between the two”
That’s how I see it, although I probably didn’t explain my thoughts very well.
I don’t think MON has outright lied.
His supposed quote was that “James intimated”, for instance.
More likely, he hasn’t fully committed himself to Villa and he (more likely his agent) is hedging his bets.
Hence MON feeling a bit rebuffed and thinking “well sod you then” coupled with Lerner being quite happy for a deal to go ahead?
Pure guesswork of course.
But I’m even more convinced Milner is gone now.
As for Lescott, well not quite.
More like every youngish player who’s played for England recently is worth 8 figures
you’re right, i think MON, as ever, has chosen his words carefully.
the reaction from milner, or what we’re told to be the reaction, has come via stuart james of the guardian whose word i trust about as far as i can spit in the wind.
whatever the truth, what’s kinda sad about the bet hedging and jockeying for position is that milner is slap in the middle of his contract, yet this is all extremely standard stuff.
i’m not sure MON is exactly pro-active with these things though. not that it’s all his responsibility, but someone at the club should have been getting milner in some kind of pre-contract agreement before the season was finished.
not airtight, but harder to wriggle out of without being unmitigated arsehole.