This Season Vs Last Season #09

Written by Dan on November 1, 2010

We’re 10 games into the 2010/11 Premiership season, so it’s time to compare this season with last season both chronologically and using an apples-to-apples comparison, or as close as is practically possible. This is the 2nd in the series this year, you can see the first post, which was a snapshot after five games, here and you can also check the 2009/10 vs 2008/09 comparison after 10 games here.

Since the form over the last five games is WLDLD, you probably won’t be surprised to find the tables don’t make encouraging reading:-

Season Pld W D L GF GA Pts
2010/11 10 3 3 4 9 13 12
2009/10 Chron 10 5 3 2 14 9 18
2009/10 Apples 10 4 5 1 15 8 17

The good news is that although the goals against column is alarming, 6 of those were at St James’ of course and we’ve actually only conceded four in the last five games. The bad news is that we’ve only scored three ourselves.

More of a concern, at the current pace, we’re on course now to pick up just 46 points by the end of the season, a tally that has achieved a best placing of 10th since the Premier League was reduced to 20 teams, but will generally place a team around 12th.

Season Pts/gm GF/gm GA/gm GF/GA W% D% L%
2010/11 1.20 0.90 1.30 0.69 30.0% 30.0% 40.0%
2009/10 Chron 1.80 1.40 0.90 1.56 50.0% 30.0% 20.0%
2009/10 Apples 1.70 1.50 0.80 1.88 40.0% 50.0% 10.0%
Projections: 46 34 49

It goes without saying that a run of good results are required on every level right now, but the fixture calendar isn’t doing us any huge favours. There’s five league games during November: Fulham (A), Blackpool (H), Man Utd (H), Blackburn (A) and Arsenal (H) and the first game in December will be the Carling Cup quarter final at St Andrews on Wednesday 1st.

During those five November games, then, we’ll need to find 14 points to match the 26 points we had after 15 games last season. 14 points from five games isn’t possible though, so we’d have to take 15 to beat it or 13 (four wins and a draw) to get close.

Not impossible, but a tall order in normal circumstances and we’re not exactly scoring for fun right now. Using Portsmouth as the substitute for Blackpool, we took eight points from those same five fixtures last season, so there’s definitely a little room to make up some ground.

The season isn’t a right off by any means, there’s just about three quarters of the way to go yet, much can still happen, but from where we are right now, finishing in a European paying spot looks like some achievement.

Curiously though, while we currently sit in the bottom half of the table, just three points from the relegation zone, we’re simultaneously also three points behind Tottenham in 5th place. Is your glass half empty or half full?

This does highlight the value of the exercise of comparing our performance against ourselves, the table is a little like a 400m race where you don’t truly know where the runners are in relation to each other until the bends have been run, the stagger has been unwound and they’re in the final straight.

Some teams will be artificially high in the table because of a less stressful fixture list, others will be suffering in the lower reaches having had to take on a string of tough opponents, but could get a surge with an easier run for a spell.

Right now though, if that Carling Cup match was already a big deal, it just got a lot bigger.