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Gerard Houllier has stood on the touchline and overseen 11 Premier League games now and the table doesn’t lie, the stats are grim. His two wins represent an 18% win ratio and you can put that up against the records of his predecessors if you wish in the manager performance table I complied just before this season kicked off.
That particular table is sorted by percentage of available points won and Houllier would sit at the bottom of the pile with 30.30% But is an 11 match sample really a fair basis to judge? I wondered how the other managers in the table had done in their first 11 league games.
Say, Ron Atkinson for instance.
Flashback: September 28th 1991. Aston Villa lost 1-0 at Highfield Road to Terry Butcher’s Coventry side leaving Ron Atkinson’s team in 16th place in the old First Division with just 12 points from the new manager’s first 11 games.
There was no need to talk of sacking the manager, not least because it was the first season after the Venglos year, but Big Ron followed up with a five game winning streak which lifted Villa into the top four (It was a tight league table back then too).
But who knows, had the internet existed in anything close to its present form, the blogs and forums could well have been lit up with calls to send the manager on his way, the early season form being little better than the awful season that preceded it.
As you’re probably aware, 1991/92 was the swan song of the old First Division before the breakaway to form the Premier League and not only did Atkinson eventually guide Villa to 7th place that season, he got closer than any Villa manager to winning the new top tier in its inaugural year the following season.
I think it’s safe to assume that we’re all pretty glad that Ron wasn’t shown the door after just 11 games, but there was never really any question of doing so as far as I’m aware.
Relegation Form?
“One win in ten; that’s relegation form”.
I hear or read that phrase a lot lately and it certainly can be, but it really depends on how many of the remaining nine games are draws I suppose. Projected over a season, that’s no more than four wins and unless you get a point from nearly all of the remaining 34 fixtures, which is highly unlikely, you will indeed be heading for the basement.
But rather than just count the wins, it would be more accurate to look at the points earned over all 11 games and extrapolate for 38 games; Houllier’s 10 points from 11 games is the equivalent of 35 points from 38 games which won’t escape relegation many seasons!
However, I’ve compared the performance of all the managers in the table who started their management career at Villa with the club in the top flight and compared their performance over the first 11 league matches, the projection for 38 games and the actual record after 38 games (except for Bill McNeill who inherited a team at the foot of the First Division six games into 86/87 and 36 games later we were back where we started and headed to the Second Division).
George Martin and Graham Taylor, in his second stint, both picked up just seven points during their first 11 games in charge, which if they’d kept the same pace would have been just 24 points after 38 games. Martin managed to amass 56 points and Taylor 45 points, the same number as Dick Taylor who had managed a barely better eight points from his first 11 matches.
The table below shows how David O’Leary and Ron Atkinson both managed to pick up the pace from early form and win more points from 38 games than was projected from their opening 11. Dr Jo, unsurprisingly, did worse than projected, Graham Turner was there or there abouts, and the managers that did well to begin with weren’t able to keep up the early form.
Billy McNeill, of course, did oversee relegation picking up just 33 points from his 36 games, the equivalent of 35 points from 38 games. Graham Taylor, in his first stint, took over and brought us back to the top flight after one season in the second tier.
I didn’t include Joe Mercer who was also at the helm as we unfortunately dropped through the trap door in 1959, but he’d only been in charge for 22 games at the time, the club stuck with him and he brought us back as Champions of the Second Division.
As far as I recall, none of these managers, whether they started well or poorly, inherited a team where their predecessor had walked out five days before the season kicked off and had to contend with an injury crisis that put the number of first team regulars on the injury list into double figures.
Too big to go down
We should all be very familiar with Newcastle, the epitome of a club who thought they were too big to go down, since we had the dubious honour of waving them off at Villa Park. A basket case of a club that actually believed employing Alan Shearer as manager would have a happy ending. It didn’t and the recent sacking of Chris Hughton suggests that they’ve learned nothing.
I would like to think that we can learn the lessons of their example purely from observation and not by attempting to emulate their approach. Still, if fans are convinced that installing a 4th manager this calendar year is the way to go, then have at it, but I hope they have a good grasp of what a self-fulfilling prophecy is and a strong sense of humour.
One way to ensure that the notion of being too big to go down proves false is to act like a small club. Aston Villa is not a small club, Aston Villa should not act like a small club.
Facetious much?
Of course, this is a vast over-simplification and in many ways I’m being quite flippant. There are lots of reasons why Atkinson wouldn’t have been under the same pressure after 11 games and Houllier is and it’s not the difference between 12 and 10 points. Might Houllier’s life be a little easier right now with a couple of extra points? Well, yes, we’d be a few places higher in the table and that would ease a lot of concerns for sure.
It would probably be a little easier without PR gaffs such as touching a sign, not being seen to wave to a group of fans or making inappropriate attempts at humour, but those things could be more easily dismissed with the right results.
But concerns about what people are seeing, or think they’re seeing, on the pitch coupled with many pre-conceived reservations mean that the bar is set an awful lot higher for Houllier and that, of course, means he’s missing it by some margin with a large group of fans. We’re also not 11 games into the season, but 16; we were in a bit of a mess when he arrived, Atkinson had the benefit of a clean slate and a pre-season.
Hindsight is 20/20
Everything becomes clear with the benefit of hindsight. It might not be likely, but it’s far from impossible for this team to go on a five game winning streak, just as Atkinson’s side did. We may look back on this period in years to come and feel as relieved that we stuck the course as Man Utd fans do after periods of dissatisfaction during early periods of Alex Ferguson’s reign.
Of course, the opposite could be equally true. We could easily look back on this period and wish the tough choices had been made; the manager and his recently assembled team shown the door and another regime installed. Personally, I think not.
As unambitious and defeatist as this might sound, let’s be realistic for a moment. We have 17 points right now, the threshold for safety is generally considered to be around 40 points (no team has gone down with more than 39 points for seven years) and there are 66 points left to play for.
I’ve been clear that my major concern for this season is failing to qualify for Europe, I know that’s not top of the pops for everyone, but while I’m losing hope that that’s achievable, I still feel it’s more likely than failing to pick up at least 23 points from 66 between now and the end of the season and being in any real danger of relegation.
23 points from 66 is a 35% return and Houllier is certainly below that ratio right now, but only Billy McNeill has failed to pick up a larger share in the top flight over a period worth measuring. Is this manager worse than McNeill, Venglos, Taylors Dick and Graham (v2.0), and David O’Leary? Really?
Considering the circumstances, I just can’t see that he is a worse manager with a worse team at his disposal than those chaps and I think we’ll be fine this season. I will make my usual concession that the current Premier League environment is a lot tougher than the leagues of the past which makes comparisons all the the more challenging.
At the end of the season, of course we should evaluate and make an educated decision about whether to continue with the current regime or try something different, but now is not the time.
In the mean time, I just don’t see how calling for the manager’s head, organising protests, hanging banners or verbally abusing the team and club both in reality and behind the safety of a computer keyboard is constructive in any way. Quite the opposite actually.
Our position at the moment is scary and emotional and that can make people act in an irrational way, especially where vulnerable to absorb groupthink.
What we need to do is keep calm and carry on.
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24 Comments to “Should we have sacked Ron Atkinson after 11 league games?”
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as usual excellent post Dan
the big difference was that we knew Ron was one of us (I went to most games that season) and we knew he totally got us. He never belittled us, he never looked like he never wanted to be here.
HE went back to cauldron of hate at Sheff Wed and stood there all game not hiding away
he picked decent assistants and the passion was there
c’est la difference !
I have a question about the list of managers….How many of them joined Aston Villa with games already played….I’m just wondering if you’ve accounted for the games already played and taken them off the points he can gain from the games that are left.
If I’m thinking to much, let me know….I confused myself sometimes.
that’s a good point. after creating the table, i pondered whether i should make the comparison 33 games since that’s the max that houllier can do this season, but decided that it was the principle of an apples to apples comparison that was important.
it was more about showing that the form over the 1st 11 games doesn’t tend to continue for 30+ games, good or bad.
john gregory took over from brian little with 11 games left in the season and won 9, lifting us from 14th to 7th. he took that form into the beginning of the 98/99 season, unbeaten in first 12 games, winning 7.
from there, his pace evened off a lot.
i’ll look through the data when i get a moment and list the managers that picked came on board mid-season as it were.
I just read what I typed, I must be tired…Is there anyway you can edit on here?
Nice work Dan. Was eagerly awaiting something from you. Not disappointed. Appreciate the history lesson, as well.
Good information and helpful history. Quick reactions are never the best in these situations and the numbers give some context.
I find it interesting that no matter the manager, Aston Villa seemed to manage between 45 & 60 points in the first season. I think this says that even if the manager isn’t the best, we can hang in there and finish mid-table. Now, the question is whether the last-minute walk by MON and the injury crisis are enough to change things.
Ultimately, very few teams in any sport in any league get ahead by swapping managers every season. Even less is achieved in swapping out a manager so early. Even if GH isn’t the right choice, who would risk their career to come to a team that has such a short-term mentality?
What a great headline question.
From a personal point of view, having thought about it, it’s not so much about the actual performance in the first few games.
It’s the perception of what’s going to happen.
Going from Venglos (awful, or was it just too early?) to Big Ron was a no-brainer.
BFR had charisma, a massive ego and a happy-go-lucky, flamboyant type persona, that said we’re going to have a go and take it to ‘em.
Great stuff.
And so it proved.
Finishing second to Manure was an absolute pleasure, only bettered in my 40+ years of watching the Villa by the obvious stuff imo.
Whereas we’ve gone the other way with our latest appointment.
Whilst MON had big flaws in the end, I always thought his team reflected his character.
Tough and with an attitude that said “f*** you, you might be bigger or better, but I’ll stand up for myself and you’ll get a fight”.
GH’s attitude just says “Hmm, let me analyse this and I’ll see if I can change these terrible players (!) into footballers. Oh and how are Liverpool doing?”
Yawn.
It’s probably incredibly unfair, as I know GH’s credentials are way better than MON’s, but it’s how I see things.
The point is, if GH can’t inspire me when I’m already converted, how can he inspire the players, who are only doing a job and don’t care a toss about the club?
They say things come with confidence and good feeling and I think it’s quite true.
From what I read/personally heard, most people thought Houllier was an average appointment, the best of a pretty bad bunch at the time, given that we wouldn’t poach anyone.
And that’s how he’ll be perceived when he’s gone.
Average.
At best.
Same as GT Mk11.
But I’m digressing from your original question, sorry.
To actually answer it, no we shouldn’t.
just looking over the comments, a couple of points…
firstly, the headline question isn’t genuine, it’s really just an illustration that form over the first 11 games doesn’t tell us enough to justify calling for the manager’s head.
of course we shouldn’t have sacked BFR and we shouldn’t be talking about sacking GH either.
however…
i’ve been in the bunker a little since monday and i just swung by one of the forums. boy are there some angry fans out there, i hadn’t realised just how frothed up some people were about the anfield gaffs.
i understand where some people are coming from, i do, but i disagree about the importance in the grand scheme of things.
i fear Newcastle 2.0 coming to B6 if people don’t calm down.
Seen many Dan compare to Newcastle but that is a false comparsion because this is surely a one off ?
the anger will dispell with a West Brom win but a few bad defeats down the line and out it will come
DOL never recovered after fickle comments and doubt GH will
you’re probably right ian, but i don’t see it as a false comparison at all. i’ll quote myself…
“if fans are convinced that installing a 4th manager this calendar year is the way to go, then have at it, but I hope they have a good grasp of what a self-fulfilling prophecy is and a strong sense of humour.”
back him and we’ll get through the season, sack him and, well, we’re back to square one and anything can happen.
comes back to one simple point Dan, IF Houllier is a flop when do you cut him, if Randy thinks he has made a massive mistake, surely better to cut now than after the window ?
Randy can not make the same mistake he made with MON, if he feels Houllier has been a failure has to go
keep saying it but teh West Brom game is so very crucial
that’s the hobson’s choice so many clubs find themselves with and elect to enter the management merry-go-round that rarely has a happy ending.
stick or twist.
twist and get it wrong, there’s nowhere to go.
stick and there’s always the chance to parachute someone in for the final few months if it’s just not working.
chelsea were brutal with big phil when it was clear that things weren’t working behind the scenes, but even he got 30+ games at the helm.
yep and you wonder at that !!
Did someone mention parachute?
Sounds about right to me at the minute Dan, as I’m thinking payments.
My head says stick with him, but my heart says get rid asap.
And the strange thing is, that’s really not like me
Oops, I think I might have made a similar mistake to GH;
“Finishing second to Manure was an absolute pleasure”
I can assure you all, it really wasn’t meant that way
The difference is, I apologise in advance, if it’s misconstrued.
ha!!
The answer to the question is no, nor should we be contemplating sacking GH. Given the circumstances surrounding his appointment, I thought he was by far the best candidate and I still have faith in him. I welcome the fact that he is open to signing players from the continent as well as giving our young players a real chance to play in the EPL.
I think the reaction to his comments at Anfield has been grossly overblown.
Consider the circumstances. He was taken seriously ill there – close to death. He must have received hundreds of goodwill cards from the Liverpool faithful. Such an outpouring of affection must have helped him / strengthened him / helped his family at that desperate time. And then he goes back for the first time in many years. I can understand the emotion. He is a human being – like we all are. It must have been an exceptionally moving experience. So in the heat of that emotion he says a few things, which in the cold light of day and when analysed at leisure, sound a little less than sensible. As Villa fans, I would like to think we are big enough to understand the circumstances and put his comments and touching the sign down to raw emotion. His actions as a human being are surely understandable. In doing and saying that, he was not acting in his cold, official capacity as manager of Aston Villa.
The only thing i would query GH on, is the report that he thought at 2:0 down after 16 minutes, “the game was over”. That was not part of the emotional return, and that is not what we want to hear from a manager of AVFC.
While disappointed to lose unnecessarily in my view, both in the Carling Cup and against Liverpool, I see hope going forward. By january he will have a better view of the players’ capabilities and he might have brought in some reinforcements. I think it could still be an interesting, even exciting, season.
thanks, i agree with all of that.
apologies that this needed moderation, i’m not sure why, i generally don’t run any, but more than happy to publish anyway.
as i say, when i wrote this, i didn’t have a good handle on just how upset the fans were about this, but i sincerely hope they can get over it.
apologies that this needed moderation
It didn’t, for me on FF ???
Oh, that bit of bold was deliberate and not another abberation, Dan.
I wanted to see if it worked
heh, that’s cool. i still haven’t had chance to see what this comment engine does and doesn’t do. do you find it laggy ever? like if you’re typing a bit and it gets caught behind and you need to wait for it to catch up?
Funnily enough, I’ve seen that on other forums/blogs, but I don’t remember it on here.
But now I’m seeing “comment awaiting moderation”
How strange
and i received a notification to moderate a comment that was published by the time i got here.
at first glance, it looks like the latest release of the spam filter might be conflicting with the comment engine. i’ll have to look into it, but it looks like it’s trying to have a larger influence on the process than was the case before.
at some point i’ll look into bringing back registration, but that’s not something i want to do half-hearted and i have a project or two in mind to tie-in too.