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I’ve talked for some time now about needing to hit a theoretical safety threshold of 43 points by the 36th game, essentially writing off our last two games against Arsenal and Liverpool. As it happens, West Brom occupy the final position offering mathematical safety today; 13th place with 43 points.
We’ve fallen a point shy and head a group of seven teams capable of suffering relegation. Mathematically speaking. Leading the group, as we do, we’re the least likely to go down of course, it would take some extraordinary results for the trapdoor to open beneath us, but it’s not impossible.
Improbable? yes. Impossible? no.
Here’s how the bottom seven of the table looks:
| Pos | Team | Pld | GD | Pts |
| 14 | Aston Villa | 36 | -13 | 42 |
| 15 | Blackburn | 36 | -14 | 39 |
| 16 | Birmingham | 36 | -18 | 39 |
| 17 | Wolves | 36 | -21 | 37 |
| 18 | Blackpool | 36 | -22 | 36 |
| 19 | Wigan | 36 | -23 | 36 |
| 20 | West Ham | 36 | -23 | 33 |
And these are the remaining fixtures for all seven sides:
| Aston Villa: | Arsenal (A) | Liverpool (H) |
| Blackburn: | Man Utd (H) | Wolves (A) |
| Birmingham: | Fulham (H) | Tottenham (A) |
| Wolves: | Sunderland (A) | Blackburn (H) |
| Blackpool: | Bolton (A) | Man Utd (H) |
| Wigan: | West Ham (H) | Stoke (A) |
| West Ham: | Wigan (A) | Sunderland (H) |
It’s important to remember that the 43 point safety threshold is as things stand today, it will probably all be different this time next week and we’ll likely be mathematically safe regardless of what happens at the Emirates. However, even if we do fail to pick up a point in our final two matches and all the other result do go against us, we still have a significant goal difference to act as a cushion.
The worst set of results I can envision is; Villa losing against Arsenal and Liverpool; Blackburn beating Man Utd, but losing to Wolves; Birmingham beating Fulham and Tottenham; Wolves beating Sunderland and Blackburn; Blackpool beating Bolton and Man Utd; Wigan beating West Ham and Stoke; and West Ham losing to Wigan, but beating Sunderland.
That just isn’t going to happen, but if it did; Birmingham would come out on top with 45 points, Wolves just behind with 43. West Ham would be bottom with 33 points and then it would come down to goal difference to pick two from Villa, Blackburn, Blackpool and Wigan all on 42 points.
Which three will drop?
So, realistically, I have to exclude ourselves from the group of teams in any real danger, the three point advantage over Blackburn and goal difference gap to the teams at the very bottom will be enough regardless of what happens.
But I’m really struggling to pick three from the remain six. I can’t see West Ham making it, but beyond that I can’t call it. Wigan vs West Ham is huge and will have a major influence, but it’s going to come down to four or five teams in real danger on the last day, surely.
So, who do you see going down? I know there’s one team in there we’d probably all take a great deal of pleasure in waving goodbye to, but which three do you really think will go?
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10 Comments to “The Not-So-Magnificent Seven: Which three will go down?”
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I was looking at this subject myself, earlier today.
West ham are gone. I just can’t see them getting 6 points and even if they do, I doubt it’ll be enough.
As much as I don’t mind WH, it strikes me as justice and Warnock coming back up is quite ironic.
As for the porn bros, well it couldn’t happen to a nicer pair could it?
I feel sorry for WH having them in charge.
Wigan?
I see them beating WH, but losing to Stoke. 39 points.
Blackpool?
I predict a draw against Bolton, but just can’t see them beating Manure. Mind you, it could depend who plays. 37
Wolves?
Don’t see them getting anything at S’land, but could see them doing BB. 40
I see the noses getting a point, so they’ll have 40.
And BB won’t get anything, 39 points.
So logic would seem to tell me that’s West Ham, Wigan and Blackpool.
However, because it’s football, I’m predicting West Ham, Wigan and Wolves.
It’s a tough one isn’t it?
Any of them could go, but I’d be amazed if we were one of them, thank God.
that last day is going to be a barnstormer. i think west ham will be out of it, but i’m hoping it’s still wide open.
what drama! (he says assuming some of the freakiest results ever haven’t thrown us into the mix!)
It would require a footballing and mathematical miracle for us to go down. But it would require much less than that for us to finish 16th or 17th.
Which would, to be honest, be no more than we deserve. Granted, the Houllier illness has come at a bad time. But our performances in the last 3 games, especially in the second halves, has been pathetic. We just haven’t tried to win any of those games.
To be honest, it might show the board, the management, and everyone else just how unacceptable this season has been if we finish below 15th. If they didn’t know it already. Its ludicrous. Liverpool have had a “bad” season, sacking their manager halfway through and being as low as us at times. But their bad season has culminated in a late fight for 4th, and they may well take 5th from Spurs. Everton looked like they were having a shocker, until suddenly they took a big upturn and are now comfortably 7th. We are the only big team who has had a slump and not been able to turn it around. Thank Fuck we won those games against Newcastle and West Ham. Otherwise we would be right in the shit with these 2 to play, and probably end up bottom.
true. the irony is the compactness of the table that put us so close to the scary end for so long conversely provided the potential to shift up the other end on the back of just a few decent results.
as you say, everton & liverpool did just that. we didn’t, despite a pretty audacious investment in january.
again, as has been the case throughout this season, there are mitigating factors, but there’s no denying that there’s something rotten in the state of denmark.
West Ham are all but relegated, so I’ll tip them
Wigan will overcome West Ham and probably just scrape it…
Blackpool, cant really see them staying up
Wolves will probably round out the bottom 3.
Birmingham – we can only hope!
i don’t think anyone has tipped blackburn yet.
tbh, if i were to pick three based on how i felt about the club, its owners, or the way they’ve conducted themselves in the league this year, i’d go with west ham, birmingham and blackburn.
for me, that would be an ideal scenario.
I was just about to nominate Blackburn. It seems like they are close to safety but I just don’t see them picking up any points through the end of the season. With a few scrappy performances from teams below them they just might drop.
West Ham is almost a given. I am personally hoping Wigan can find a way to escape but in all honesty I think they will drop.
My prefered scenario: WH, Blackburn and Birmingham drop
My realistic guess: WH, Wigan, Wolves
I don’t really care as long as West Brom lose their remaining games and we come out on top as the Midland champions.
You might well have to increase our goals against by 10 though after playing Arsenal and Liverpool.
I remain absurdly optimistic about the two remaining games – Arsenal are demoralized and in some disarray, and, especially after the MC win today, the final game for Liverpool may not matter much.
I can’t claim the native’s hatred of Birmingham City, but if they go down that at least eliminates two riots next year. I always root for Mick McCarthy and the Wolves (except when they play Villa) and think now they can make it – and deservedly so. I think West Ham, Wigan and Blackpool are the doomed ones.