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If you had asked me a little over a year ago to name the eight teams most likely to fill the top eight places in the Premier League come May I would have said; Liverpool, Everton, Man Utd, Man City, Aston Villa, Tottenham, Arsenal and Chelsea. Not in that order, obviously.
Then our manager skipped off into the sunset and the season that followed will last in the memory for many years. For all the wrong reasons. Still, thanks to a late rally, and a slice of luck, by the end of the season we finished 9th. There was just a single point and goal difference keeping us away from 8th; Fulham being the gatecrasher to the “predicted” top eight.
So, despite all the crazy, the major players all ended up more or less where you’d have expected them to be before a ball had been kicked. Give or take.
Top eight 2011/12
Broadly speaking, it’s same again this year in terms of predictions as far as I’m concerned. Sorry. Sure, Aston Villa are the vulnerable member of this pack. Assuming we do cling on to the pack, we’ll more than likely be among the stragglers at the back most in danger of getting picked off.
It’s hard not to imagine that Everton will be far away either. If they manage to catch up after their usual poor start that is. That’s a pretty big ‘IF‘, it has to be said, Everton aren’t in good shape at all, but Moyes does have that annoying habit of quietly getting it done.
I’m not sure what to make of Liverpool or Tottenham at the moment, but both look stronger than us. The Scousers have raised some eyebrows with some of the money they’ve thrown around – some in our direction – but I think they’re being run by a group of people who do have a strong plan, despite how it might look.
Arsenal, by their own standards, seem to be in danger of imploding right now, but it’s difficult to imagine them not in the mix for Champions League places. Difficult, but not impossible. There’s potential for the wheels to well and truly fall off the Wenger Wagon this season. Definitely one to watch.
So, we’re left with a three horse race for the title between the two Manchester clubs and Chelsea. There will be many twists and turns along the way, the Champions League will surely be a significant distraction for City, but I wouldn’t be at all surprised if they do end up winning the league this year.
That said, the experience on the red side of the city will count for a lot and if it’s tight, Ferguson will always edge it.
The chasing pack
So who are the teams most likely to spoil this “top eight club” then?
Well, Fulham and Newcastle should be there or thereabouts for starters. The potential stick in the spokes being Fulham’s attention span while in Europe and Newcastle’s ability to be, well, simply mental.
Sunderland, Bolton and Stoke will keep them honest with West Brom being little more than a spoiler I feel; Woy’s “new manager effect” long since worn off.
Blackburn are basically the Premier League’s equivalent of beige. I actually missed them out when I first wrote this and it wasn’t until I spotted West Brom listed twice in the table at the bottom that I found I’d missed Blackburn out. Bottom half somewhere then.
There are a lot of question marks over all of these clubs for various reasons, but I actually quite fancy Bolton to be the dark horse that appears on the rail as the winter fades in early 2012.
The bottom five
Wolves and Wigan should struggle again, but I’m not convinced that any of the three newly promoted sides have enough in them to avoid being in the bottom three after 38 games.
Swansea could easily be one of those sides that flatter to deceive early on, before fading badly towards the end. QPR looked strong last season, particularly defensively, but I can’t see them being able to resist that horrific run-in we covered yesterday. Norwich might well be the side capable of nicking it, but it will be tight.
Experience wise, Norwich were last in the top flight in 2005, QPR in 1996 and Swansea back in 1983; this is their first visit to the Premier League then. As weak as Wigan are, especially without N’Zogbia, it’s really difficult to see any of the new boys having the fortitude to resist the drop.
Head on the chopping block: The final table
Breaking these broad groups down into final finishing positions comes down to nothing more sophisticated than gut instinct. On that basis then, this is what my magical intestinal system tells me:
| 1 | Man Utd |
| 2 | Man City |
| 3 | Chelsea |
| 4 | Liverpool |
| 5 | Arsenal |
| 6 | Tottenham |
| 7 | Aston Villa |
| 8 | Everton |
| 9 | Bolton |
| 10 | Newcastle |
| 11 | Fulham |
| 12 | Sunderland |
| 13 | Stoke |
| 14 | West Brom |
| 15 | Blackburn |
| 16 | Wolves |
| 17 | Wigan |
| 18 | Norwich |
| 19 | QPR |
| 20 | Swansea |
Deluded? Crazy? Quite possibly. But we’ve got 34,200 minutes of 22 blokes hoofing around a lump of leather to get through over the next ten months before we know the final outcome of the table for real; just about anything can happen!
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18 Comments to “The obligatory Premier League prediction post”
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I would be really surprised to see Villa at 7th. You have been weakened considerably. Add to that your new manager, who does not strike me as having the necessary ability to take an English PL team to a possible Europa League position. I think you’ll end up mid-table in a pack of clubs, which include Newcastle, Sunderland, Fulham, West Brom, Stoke and Bolton.
Top-7:
1. United
2. Chelsea
3. City
4. Liverpool
5. Arsenal
6. Everton
7. Spurs
you might be right about mcleish, but we’re quick to forget that he guided a championship side to 9th the season before last with the top 8 locked off by the “big 8″ i’ve mentioned here.
that’s 1st in a mini-league of 12 in that sense.
I think that you have Newcastle too high-up. Without Carroll, and inevitably Barton, I fail to see them making any kind of impact and would expect them to be fighting-off relegation coming into the final weeks. And I’d predict that Roy Hodgson’s West Brom will be organised enough to perhaps sneak top half. And my dislike of City leads me to naively believe that they won’t be in title contention this season.
Top 8:
1. United
2. Chelsea
3. City
4. Liverpool
5. Arsenal
6. Tottenham
7. Everton
8. Bolton, Fulham or perhaps even West Brom
I think that losing Ashley Young is too much of a blow to Villa. I think they’ll do well to be top-half this season.
on reflection, you’re probably right about newcastle. perhaps west brom will punch a little above their weight, we’ll see.
but with or without ashley young, i don’t see 10 teams better than us in this league. sorry, i just don’t.
You have a much higher opinion of Newcastle than me. Without Nolan and Barton I fear the worst for the geordies. I can also see Stoke challenging for a place in the top 8.
i sense that might be a common observation about newcastle…
…let’s chalk it up as a “best case scenario” if they get their shit together… which is highly unlikely!
tbf, i think i’ve been generous to them.
MCFC fan in peace.
Good article. I actually think Villa will surprise a lot of people – some of your own fans included, it seems – and do really well this year.
A full season from Bent and great signings in Given and Nzogbia. I think the latter will be a real star for you.
If the likes of Allbrighton, Bannan and Clark can kick on and avoid second season syndrome I think Villa could be a real handful. And there’s still money in the bank to strengthen, now or in January.
Maybe someone can straighten Stephen Ireland’s head out. Then you’d have some player on your hands.
As for us, it all depends if Aguero can hit the ground running, if Dzeko proves his class and if Mad Mario can get more goals than cards.
Elsewhere, for no reason more than a gut feeling, I think Stoke have been worked out and could really struggle this year.
All the best for the new season, love awaydays at Villa Park.
you took the words right out of my mouth; i really do think we will surprise a lot of people this season.
i think a lot of folk look at our 9th last year and deduct accordingly for losing ashley young, but even without him we’re still better than 9th. that wasn’t a fair reflection on our club, it was a freak season.
as you say, we’ve got some good young players who will now get a chance and there is a brilliant player inside stephen ireland somewhere. we just need to find him. the signs have been mixed so far this summer.
as for city, i’ll let you in on a secret; i did initially have you in 1st, but bottled it at the last moment. i just can’t quite see it yet, but it’s probably going to be a tight finish & might depend on how well you balance the champions league.
maybe you’ll prove me wrong. good luck with it.
Cheers Dan. Interestingly, Ireland had by far his best season for City when he linked up with Robinho playing on the left. They had a natural understanding and chemistry, and created a lot of goals for each other.
I could see that being replicated with Nzogbia, if McLeish is brave enough to play them in the same side.
that’s encouraging. to his credit, mcleish has employed him as the CAM thus far; his best position i think and by the time houllier did so their relationship was already done. it didn’t work.
looking forward to seeing the first competitive teamsheet, but it sounds like heskey may well be getting the nod on the left at the moment.
Most of those skeptical of Villa’s chances this year mention the “loss of Ashley Young.” But you don’t see this from the Villa fans. He received a lot of criticism for last year, always noting he had only one goal from open play, attitude, etc. Hard to see that N’Zogbia is much of a downgrade at this point, and as you once said, Young probably had gone as far as he was going to go with Villa. Fresh blood is probably a good thing. And all those who fell into the doghouse under Houillier – Dunne, Collins, Warnock, Cuellar, Ireland – will probably only play better this year.
But, as you have pointed out, the loss of a manager four days before the season started set in motion a chain of events, the negative effect of which can hardly be comprehended. All that is over.
I vote for 7th.
i really think the absence of ashley young will give other players the opportunity to contribute that they wouldn’t have otherwise got. between them, they can match his output.
Actually, if N’Zogbia does fit in, you might do well with having Bent for him to feed, which could be worth a top-8 finish after all. I just have a feeling that McLeish will drag you down with his tactics. I still can’t fathom why he was given the job. Villa are still a top English team and if I supported them, I would feel short-changed by the appointment.
Maybe he’ll prove me wrong.
well, don’t ask a villa fan why he was appointed, we don’t get it either. but it’s done now, we’ve just got to get on with it.
that said, i’m not overly concerned about his style, i think he did what he had to do at birmingham based on the tools he had to work with. i think pre-season has shown us that he’ll use the attacking weapons we have for the most part, but will probably put us in a shell against the bigger teams.
i could live with that. assuming it gets the results!
I feel the team as a whole are good enough to get top 7, provided they are utilised in the correct manner. We have a balance of experience and youth that could well pull off a few shocks this coming season.
For me, the unknown factor is the boss himself, and more importantly how he interacts with the fans. I think one or two poor results early on and we could just implode on ourselves.
This would never give us chance to realise our potential as the boss would quickly become the villain (no pun intended!).We could end up on a Championship bound spiral with the real culprits being ourselves.
AM is a scapegoat in waiting and only, in my opinion, a damn good run of results will see him as manager next season. My heart is saying top 7, but my head is saying 14 down.
I hope i am wrong!
indeed. a good start is absolutely vital. without it, there’s not much chance of recovery for him.
three home games in eight day after fulham tomorrow too. that should be interesting.
i think villa shud of signed wright phillips or adam johnson that wud of made me optimistic of taking out big teams i think the following
1.man u
2.mancity
3.chelsea
4.liverpool
5.arsenal (fa cup)
6.spurs
7.everton
8.villa
9.stoke
10.sunderland
11.fulham
12.bolton
13.newcastle
14.wba
15.wolves
16.swansea
17.norwich
18.wigan
19.qpr
20.qpr
^^^^^bburn 20th^^^^^^^^^