It was just nanoseconds after the referee blew the final whistle on the disappointing defeat in Blackburn today before the formation criticisms began to be posted online. Of course it’s all so simple, you play 4-5-1 and you win, you play 4-4-2 and you lose!! How could Martin O’Neill not see this?!?

Now, I agree that we appear to have achieved better results when starting a game in what appears to be a 3 man central midfield with the wingers encouraged to get forward to support the lone striker. A 4-5-1 turning into a 4-3-3 if you like. But I refuse to accept the argument that a 5 man midfield simply beats a 4 man midfield. If it were really that simple we could just send out 8 midfielders – we have enough – a lone striker and someone at the back just in case. Of course, that’s just silly.

I believe I’ve seen someone somewhere split last season in to games playing 4-5-1 and games playing 4-4-2 to “prove” that 4-5-1 is the way to go. I’m sure I read an attached comment that said something along the lines of “see, the statistics prove it” followed by some criticism of the manager for failing to see the blindingly obvious. Yes, the same manager who employed the 4-5-1 in the first place.

To anyone who believes it’s really this simple, I will tell you something every statistician and scientist in the world knows – correlation does not imply causation.

I’m reminded of my younger days as a keen reader of Viz. I would always turn first to the “Top Tips” page and spend the next several minutes on the floor doubled up. One that always stuck in my mind read as follows:-

I always sleep with a large iron key under my tongue and I’ve never had a heart attack!!

Correlation does not imply causation.

The Challenge

Still not convinced? OK, lets play a little game. The 6 diagrams below show the average position of the starting XI in the six Premiership games so far. Four represent victories and the other two are from the loses.

If you feel the two loses can be attributed to the 4-4-2 formation employed then you should have no trouble picking them out.

So which two games are 4-4-2 – A, B, C, D, E or F?

Please bare in mind that I’m also a fan of 4-5-1 myself, but on the other hand I like to see Carew and Gabby on the pitch. The point is that we’re not watching table football here, the formation is far more fluid and as MON has said recently, it’s much more about the players and the roles they’re asked to perform on the pitch.