QuickStat: Aston Villa Passing and Shooting

Written by Dan on December 14, 2009

I was just checking out a table on this Sky Sports page which shows the total successful passes for the Premiership and a couple of things stood out for me that I thought were worth sharing.

Firstly, if you take the table and sort by successful passes it looks like this:-

Team Goals Shots On Target Shot Accuracy Succ Passes
1 Man Utd 34 208 93 45% 6725
2 Chelsea 40 268 125 47% 6588
3 Liverpool 32 216 99 46% 6519
4 Arsenal 40 196 104 53% 6137
5 Tottenham 35 227 110 48% 5336
6 Fulham 20 166 70 42% 4886
7 West Ham 24 190 85 45% 4867
8 Wigan 19 192 90 47% 4755
9 Man City 29 168 85 51% 4609
10 Everton 22 178 82 46% 4322
11 Portsmouth 14 182 68 37% 4103
12 Burnley 20 142 63 44% 4063
13 Aston Villa 26 136 59 43% 3639
14 Birmingham 16 135 70 52% 3521
15 Blackburn 16 164 67 41% 3493
16 Hull 17 124 56 45% 3458
17 Wolves 15 135 50 37% 3427
18 Sunderland 22 143 61 43% 3361
19 Bolton 20 165 64 39% 2665
20 Stoke 15 129 47 36% 2610

Hopefully you noticed that Portsmouth have made 13% more successful passes than Aston Villa and yet they hug the bottom of the only table that matters. Since Villa are 13th in this passing table, but occupy 4th in the Premiership, you’ll surely spot several other teams that complete more passes, but don’t get the results.

When you see that the top four places in this table belong to you know who, it’s easy to fall into the trap of believing that if we wish to emulate their success, we need to spend more time “spreading the ball around”, or words to that effect. There’s an element of truth in that, but if only football were really so simple!

It’s no coincidence that these four teams have made 69% to 85% more successful passes than Aston Villa so far this season and achieved even more impressive ratios when we actually played them. Our record against the big four is played three, won three, despite being outpassed by more than 2:1 and only enjoying a third of the possession. And yet, I haven’t heard anyone describe any of those three wins as “lucky”.

Of course, the team we’ve yet to face this season is Arsenal, who look great, but far from unbeatable. I would be willing to bet a fair chunk of cash that by the time we hear the final whistle at the Emirates on the 27th we will have been outpassed and held the ball for less than 50% of the game. However, who would be so confident in betting against Villa coming away with some sort of result? I wouldn’t.

We’re clearly doing something right, but when you look at the number of shots and shots on target in the table above it’s difficult to see exactly what that might be. Although only 6 teams have scored more goals than us, we’re close to the relegation zone when it comes to the number of shots and number of shots on target! This doesn’t make sense, how can this be?

One of the possible answers is revealed when you compare the number of goals to the number of shots on target. We may not have the highest number of shots on target, but we score from the highest percentage by some margin. Villa have scored 26 from 59 shots on target, which is 44%. Arsenal are the next best at 40 from 104, or 38%.

What this paints is a picture of efficiency. We have less of the ball. We pass it less. We shoot less. We even score less than many teams, yet we win games. This can only be achieved with one of the meanest defensive units in the league and an attacking line up willing and able to help out at the back. It’s a work ethic and team spirit thing, of course, but there’s no shortage of skill and ability in the squad.

Martin O’Neill has spent three seasons assembling the personnel capable of playing this fast, direct, counter-attacking football and it’s working right now. I think a Martin O’Neill side will always play this way first and foremost, but there’s signs that he has enough talent on the field to play a more expansive game as and when they’re able.

But that will come in time. Firstly we need to be consistently challenging the very top clubs season after season, then we can concern ourselves with emulating their style.