You might not realise it to look at lengthy tomes like yesterday’s post exploring the statistics of when goals are scored and conceded, but sometimes I have to cut things out. For the sake of brevity (don’t laugh) I stuck with the premise that in order to open the goal scoring flood gates again the team really just need to slow down and employ a little patience. Unsurprisingly, there’s a bit more to it than that.

The question at the end the post about whether Milner is capable of playing any other way was a clue. I’m tempted to conclude that he isn’t and the high paced, counter attacking system is exactly what MON wanted to create. One problem though. Although I think it’s absolutely necessary that Villa be able to play with two strikers when required, I’m not convinced that the big target man of Emile Heskey or John Carew actually fits in to the current system all that well right now.

The pair of them are certainly dividing opinion at the moment. Heskey, on the one hand, can’t be faulted for effort, but in terms of tangible contribution, there’s question marks to say the least. John Carew, when not starting, has his name sung from about 55 minutes if we’re not winning and from the 70th minute regardless, but if he’s not having one of his better games, his contribution is limited to inspiring songs from the fans. JC may indeed be bigger than me and you, but he hasn’t exactly been scoring one or two lately.

Gabby + Wing3rs = Goals?

I’ve been excited about the prospect of a system that allows Gabby, Ash, Downing and Milner to tear into opponents, scaring them senseless in the process, since Downing recovered from his injury. However, the weakness is that Petrov gets left an awful lot of space to cover on his own when everyone else is bombing forward. West Ham could be accused of parking the bus recently at Villa Park, but they showed on a number of occasions that they were capable of counter attacking and over running the centre of the park.

I’m coming to the conclusion that Carew and Heskey ought to be the ones we’re looking to at set plays to break the deadlock against frustrating opponents and if they’re not doing that and they’re not fitting into the system during open play so well, then they’re hindering more than helping the cause. It’s starting to look like we should consider strengthening the middle alongside the captain to give Gabby + the wing3rs the platform they need to raid the opposition, saving the big guns for the end when an aerial bombardment might be the only solution left.

They say a picture paints a thousand words, so I’ll keep the word count down here by showing some alternative systems.

	4-4-2 On paper, this is pretty much what we’re playing now. The average position maps I normally post in the statshacks show that Heskey/Carew tend to play deeper than Gabby. Because Downing & Ash swap wings so frequently they end up plotted in the middle, but you will see that Ash gets forward as much as Gabby, but Downing is advanced about the same amount as Milner, just a little deeper. Milner does get forward plenty, but also works the channels with Ash & Downing and sometimes Petrov is left a little isolated in the middle. I think that the next formation, a 4-2-3-1, would solve that problem.
	4-2-3-1 Reo-Coker would be ideal to sit in front of the back four with Stan to provide the platform the forward players can launch from. Fabian Delph looks like he may well have the tools to do the same, but with a bit more attacking intent. Essentially, Milner does what he’s doing now, linking up with Ash & Downing, providing Gabby with deadly through balls and unleashing the odd shot from distance. Although I think this is my favourite line up right now, you’ve got to have some alternatives up your sleeve.
	5-4-1 On the face of it quite a defensive formation and I’d certainly be looking to use it against the big four and would encourage a little route one style football. I’ve sacrificed Downing from this line up and put Gabby on the right, but it didn’t have to be him and Gabby just makes it easier to switch this into a 3-5-2 if necessary. It might be subtle, but this formation has some strong attacking elements. Firstly, the full backs are actually wing backs and are encouraged to get forward a lot. Secondly, I’ve seen signs this season that Richard Dunne is capable of playing a sweeper style role, stepping up to be an extra man in midfield and that would be a key feature to this system.
	3-5-2 I’m not the biggest of 3-5-2, but I think if you started with 5-4-1, but things aren’t working out and you need to chase the game, this has to be considered as a possible plan B. In most cases you’d probably probably yank one of the centre backs off and go to a 4-4-2, but there might be occasions where this could work and, if nothing else, it would be nice to see the 3-5-2 make a bit of a comeback.
	4-3-3 You might need reminding that MON actually employed a 4-3-3 for a spell during his first season at Villa and it can be absolutely lethal when everyone is singing from the same page. I’d quite like to see a return to something like this for the right games. The theory is that it adapts to a 4-5-1 when not in possession, but then all formations are fluid like that in reality. There will definitely be weak opposition visiting Villa Park that could and should be put to the sword with this kind of system from the start.

If I had a complaint right now it’s that we don’t see much variance in strategy and personnel. I accept the adage that you don’t change a winning team, but everyone accepts that some rotation is required in order to get through the season. I suppose it’s a good thing that MON isn’t often forced to make changes through injury or suspension, but we definitely have talent on the bench who are capable of sharing a bit more of the load.

At the moment, I think Reo-Coker or Delph would be a lot more useful to us in the middle than Carew or Heskey are up front. That’s not to say that we should routinely play some variant on a 4-5-1, I’ll repeat the point that every top team should be able to play 2 strikers when need be, it’s actually less to do with the strikers and more to do with getting the most out of our wing3rs.

In the end, if nothing else, I suppose this may well give reason to question whether the solution to a lack of goals really does lie in buying a new striker, or whether we have the goals in the team and they just need unleashing.

I still think there are goals in this side and switching to a strategy of saving the energy for the second half would be a good start. I also think that Carew and Heskey have a contribution to make, but there will be games where neither player will fit into the best tactical approach. At those times, starting one and then subbing the other into the game in the second half smacks too much of a like-for-like swap, when we’re really lacking some invention elsewhere on the park.

We’ve got an interesting and challenging fixture calendar lined up for the rest of the month, it’s going to be very interesting to see how MON approaches these games. I know he’s said that players such as James Milner would be “apoplectic” at being asked to sit out and I can well imagine that to be the case, but he’s the boss and he’s spent several seasons building a squad large and talented enough to cope with the rigors of the season. It’s time to start using it and we have to score some goals. Soon! For the love of all things good, please score some goals soon!!