Over the past week or so we’ve had bookies’ favourite after bookies’ favourite billed as the next Aston Villa manager, only to later be dismissed almost as quickly as they emerged. I could count all the posts on the subject from the various Aston Villa blogs and news outlets I subscribe to, but I’m pretty certain it’s easily in triple digits.

Attempting to sort the wheat from the chaff would drive me insane. I’ve taken the nuclear “mark all as read” option several times. I reserve the right as commander and chief of my own Google Reader to do so again in the future.

Nevertheless, the reaction to the mooted candidates has been both fascinating and troubling. An early possibility garnered a huge amount of support, perhaps surprisingly so given the rampant criticism of Houllier’s apparent lack of passion. The downside, once Carlo Ancelotti apparently ruled himself out, was that anyone else would seem like a disappointment in comparison.

Some more disappointing, or frankly terrifying, than others. I couldn’t possibly comment on the accuracy, but one report claimed that Steve McClaren was told to “schhhtoppp!” en route to his interview on the basis of fan reaction. Probably not true, but an amusing image.

The interwebz

Still, everyone has an opinion and these days we have the social media platform of our choosing right in the palm of our hands to vent it on. Some of that opinion is quite informed, considered and interesting, most is just irrational garbage, but can be pervasive nonetheless.

My overarching concern in lieu of appointing an Ancelotti type of manager – which was always highly unlikely, let’s be honest – is whoever gets the job is likely to displease a large proportion of fans. Not unlike Gerard Houllier.

Say what you like about Houllier, and we all have, it’s impossible to argue that he didn’t have significant opposition actively working against him from the outset. He didn’t help himself sometimes, sure, but constantly blowing every minor gripe out of all proportion is not a recipe for success. In fact, the negativity always risks becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy.

I’m not suggesting that we should be vacant, scarf-waving cheerleaders regardless of what is actually happening, but I sense a large number of people are negative purely for the sake of it. You know the type; never happy unless they’re unhappy and with a desire, a thirst even, to tell the rest of us all about it.

Logic

The problem is the lack of cohesion in some of the conventional wisdom that gets attached to certain managers. For instance, Houllier’s trophies were initially dismissed because he made some poor signings. Rafa Benitez won the Champions League (with seven of Houllier’s signings in the starting eleven), but that’s been dismissed because he spent a lot of money.

David Moyes has been a perennial fan favourite, largely because he’s achieved what he has “without any money”. Pressed on why Moyes would be attracted to making what a lot of neutrals regard as a sideways move to Aston Villa, the answer tends to be “that he’ll get more money to spend”.

So if the manager will be given funds, why not go for the guy with experience of spending and winning? Why give money to someone who hasn’t had much before so he can be the next manager we can say “yeah, he did well, but he spent a lot of money”? I can’t reconcile this logic. Sorry.

And what has Moyes actually done at Everton to deserve such reverence anyway? He qualified for the Champions League in his third season thanks largely to Liverpool’s awful away record and, well, that’s about it. They then failed in their qualification round, dropped into the UEFA Cup and failed there too, and didn’t really do too well in the league either, finishing 11th.

What everyone seems to ignore is that Everton finished 17th with 39 points in Moyes’ second full season at Goodison. Would he have got a third at Villa Park? Honestly, would he? Doubtful.

The money element is also interesting. During Moyes’ first four seasons, Everton spent a little more than Aston Villa, but in modern terms it’s practically even. They outperformed us in the league in three of the four seasons, but in two of those three, we had David O’Leary at the helm.

So, is David Moyes a better manager than David O’Leary? Yes. And?

Patience and vision

Moyes’ second season should serve as an example that if panic and knee-jerk reactions can be avoided, if patience and vision is shown, it can pay off. As I say, I’m not convinced that Moyes has done anything particularly outstanding – and the last three seasons show some decline – but the majority of Everton fans seem loathed to part with him. That does say a lot.

Moyes is also a rarity in terms of length of service. Nine full seasons is a rare exception to the rule in modern football. The likes of Moyes, Ferguson and Wenger are few and far between, yet another common demand from fans is for a “long term appointment”.

What is “long term” and who could fit that bill? Would Ancelotti hang around for nine years? Would Mark Hughes? Seven years? Six years? Five? Highly unlikely. Would Moyes do another nine year stint? I don’t know.

So let’s now address the headline question and consider the latest of hot favourites; Roberto Martinez. A man whose second season at Wigan saw them avoid relegation on the last day, but with a record that was superior to David Moyes in his second season with Everton.

A man who could genuinely be a long term appointment in every sense, but would be unlikely to deliver much success in his first season or two. In seasons three, four, five, six… well, who can say? He absolutely knows his onions and is tipped for big things eventually. Miss out now and forever regret it perhaps?

The bottom line is that whoever Randy Lerner and Paul Faulkner appoint, there will be many doubters among the Villa faithful. The one thing they can’t possibly do without is the support, patience and belief we can supply. Those factors are not unlike oxygen; cut them off and it makes the manager’s job almost impossible. It doesn’t matter who gets the job.

As trite as it may seem, the vital ingredient, then, is you. It’s me. It’s all of us. It’s Aston Villa as a football club. We need to answer some important questions and it’s about time. Do we want to lurch from one panicked, reactionary decision to the next, endlessly cycling through managers with key players heading for the exit door every summer?

Or do we want to finally smash a stake in the ground, say this is who we are, this is what we’re about and this is how we’re going to play football for the foreseeable future come what may?

We can only do that collectively and it takes some serious patience and belief. My hope is that it’s also Randy’s position and that’s what he’s trying to get right with this appointment.

Whoever ends up getting the job, they’ll arrive with a clean slate and they’ll at least get total backing from me. For what little that’s worth.