Cast your mind back to January 10th 2009, the 2-1 home win over The Baggies. That was the 21st game of the season and quite a milestone as Villa achieved it’s highest points tally at that stage of any Premiership season. I confidently predicted an end of season points total between 70 and 74 points.

One thing I certainly proved was the futility of making predictions about football!! With that said, it seems like a great time to get the crystal ball out again!!

OK. Our bad run is over. It has to be. Because, er, well, it just does. So, on Sunday, despite the protests from the wingnuts, we’ll defeat Everton and move 4 points clear. Everton will then have to face Man Utd in their FA Cup semi-final before a mid-week visit to Stamford Bridge in the Premiership. We shouldn’t need to be concerned with looking over our shoulders at the blue half of Liverpool again for the rest of the season.

But can we catch and pass Arsenal for fourth?? Maybe. By the time Villa and Everton meet on Sunday, Arsenal will have already returned from their tie in Wigan. No disrespect to Wigan, but let’s assume that Arsenal go home with 3 points. 32 games played; 4th – Arsenal 61 pts, 5th – Villa 55 pts.

However, next comes the run of fixtures that all the Gooners are scared of, but won’t admit it…

• Weds 15th April – Villareal, Home, UCL – currently 1-1, can you say extra time and penalties??
• Sat 18th April – Chelsea, Wembley, FA Cup SF – would I be too evil to hope for another game with extra time and penalties?? Yeah?? Oh well!!
• Tue 21st April – Liverpool, Away, EPL – tired legs coming up against a Liverpool team out of the Champions League and desperate for a league title??

After this, Arsenal have Middlesbrough at home and then play Portsmouth Away. Ordinarily, two winnable games, but both sides are fighting for Premiership survival and Arsenal will surely be feeling the effects of the 3 major games inside a week.

Next up, Chelsea at home and Man Utd away. Oh dear.  During this period Villa will have played West Ham at home.  Away to Bolton.  Hull at home and then two away days; Fulham and Middlesbrough.

So that leaves Arsenal hosting Stoke for their final game. I have them on 69 points at this stage. At the same time, Newcastle will be at Villa Park and I have Villa on 68 points before kick off.

Being a point behind Arsenal with one game to go is as close as I can realistically see things developing.  Fourth position really is Arsenal’s to throw away now.  Our run of 14 points from the next 6 games completely relies on us beating Everton on Sunday.  Failure to achieve that and it’s really a battle between the two of us for fifth spot. That’s a battle I still see us winning, but will fifth be enough for the fans who’ve tasted the sweet nectar of the top four this season??