Arsenal are a curious side right now, frequently, as far as I can determine, a victim of their own complacency. 2-0 up against Tottenham by half time at the Emirates last Saturday and they somehow conspired to take their foot off the gas to the point they seemed helpless to respond to Spurs’ resurgence and rightly ended up with nothing.

The fans and manager alike, apparently, stunned and without an explanation of where it all went wrong.

They rocked up in Braga this week for a Champions League rematch against the Portuguese side they had ripped to shreds in London with a thumping 6-0 victory, but after 90 minutes, 551 complete passes and 65% possession they’d only managed one single shot on target and found themselves on the wrong end of a 2-0 scoreline.

That one shot on target came courtesy of Cesc Fábregas, a player Wenger has admitted he should have been taking more care of in order to nurse a recurrent hamstring problem. The good news for us, with Cesc’s devastating cameo at the Emirates still lingering in our memory, is that the manager learned that lesson too late and the Spaniard will not be available tomorrow.

In fact, that’s fantastic news for us: the defeat at the Emirates last season is our only loss to Arsenal in the last five meetings and it was completely orchestrated by Fábregas. I wouldn’t claim we were in control when he stepped on the pitch, but we were proving stubborn adversaries and Braga have just given a fine demonstration of what that can lead to. Not that we needed it, but Blackburn have just shown us how a small foothold in the game can still deliver a victory.

In an interesting clash of the stats, we’re unbeaten at Villa Park thanks largely to having the joint 2nd stingiest defensive record at home in the league, but Arsenal have the best away record with only Man City scoring more goals on the road.

Will that be enough for Wenger’s side to turn up in Birmingham with complacency mode fully engaged? Doubtful. Quite the opposite is more likely; the thought of losing three on the bounce must be heavy on their minds.

While they might not be suffering anything like the injury crisis we are, it won’t help confidence much to know they will be without Diaby, Fábregas, Eboué and Vermaelen for a game where quality usually makes the difference.

Gabby doubtful, Carew hopeful

For our part, Gabby is the latest doubt for the game after missing the last two training sessions with a virus. Houllier wants to give him a late fitness test tomorrow, but as far as I’m concerned, he’s not done much beyond keeping Delfouneso out the starting XI since returning from injury so leaving him out wouldn’t be the end of the world.

Better news; John Carew played just over an hour, as did Robert Pires, for the reserves during the week and will definitely be in the match squad at least. Both James Collins and Ciaran Clark are also returning, both likely starters; Collins at the back, Clark probably in midfield replacing Jonathon Hogg who also joined the walking wounded list this week and is “doubtful”.

Tactics

Tactically, it remains a massive challenge for Houllier to decide how to set up his side with so many players missing. Arsenal are likely to use some form of fairly attacking 4-2-3-1/4-3-3 with Chamakh leading an attacking threesome of Nasri flanked by Arshavin and Walcott, with Song and Wilshere behind them pulling the strings.

Chamakh is Arsenal’s leading scorer in the league almost averaging a goal every other game. Fortunately he scored against Tottenham so he’s not due one tomorrow, but he’s definitely a player that Collins and Dunne cannot afford to switch off against for a second.

But whatever Arsenal do, they will come at us, much like Man Utd did, and that’s good news for Stewart Downing as it makes sense to get him back on the left with the brief of getting behind Sagna at every opportunity, quite possibly with John Carew as a crossing target.

The key for me is Ashley Young. Houllier seems determined to play Ash as a 2nd striker, but with Marc Albrighton out for a few weeks following his appendectomy that simply is not an option. Hopefully Ash will be focusing on the right, but will spend a couple of spells swapping with Downing, a practice that hasn’t been employed in the last couple of games.

I’m really looking forward to seeing Barry Bannan operating against the quality that Arsenal possess and in the space he can find if he’s the player we all think he is. It’s also a good opportunity to see him up against the much hyped Jack Wilshere who is two years Barry’s junior.

Ireland and Pires

The final point of interest will be Stephen Ireland and Robert Pires. Will either of them start? With Gabby and Albrighton missing, Houllier might be forced to start one of them, but I’m pretty sure he’d be extremely reluctant to start Ireland. But at 37 and with so little match fitness, how likely a starter in Pires? Especially against Arsenal of all teams.

It’s another fascinating match, early kick off once again and another game where a defeat among an extremely tight league would have worrying consequences, but three points could equally propel us back into the top half of the table.

We’re currently nine points behind Arsenal; around this time last year that gap was just two points, although they were running with a game in hand for a time. The thought of falling 12 points behind is as unthinkable to me as losing three on the bounce probably is to them.

One of the best home teams meets the best away team, either records will fall, or this has draw written all over it. I’ll save the cliché of writing later about how I would have taken a draw if offered one before kick off by saying right now, I’d happily take a draw thanks.

Idle chitter-chatter

And finally, just a couple of things floating around at the moment that have generated predictable chatter; the Twitter account apparently belonging to Stephen Ireland which generated some headlines quite probably does not belong to Stephen Ireland and when Houllier placed an £80m price tag on Ash’s head his tongue was placed in the same cheek it was when he said he’d sign Benzema tomorrow.

[ad#Kitbag – Away Shirt – 468×60]