I’m deliberately using the word ‘expectation’ in place of ‘prediction’. Predicting the result of a single game with all of the possible variables is folly, but we all do it on an “all things being equal” basis. All things most certainly are not equal though. Bookmakers know this, it’s why they offer us the opportunity to wager on our predictions and they make a healthy living. Even a “dead cert” can fail to deliver. Over time, the house always wins.

Predicting the result of a 10 month season where Villa will possibly play 50+ games out of hundreds of matches across four competitions featuring a cast of thousands of players, coaches and fans in dozens of locations and weather conditions is, well, an act of lunacy.

The reality is that there are only 20 places in the league that Villa can finish anyway. If I make the reasonable assumption that we’re strong enough in any circumstance not to finish in the bottom half of the table, I’ve reduced the possibility to 10 positions. It’s arguable that Villa may once again fall short of the elusive top four spot – I’m now down to 6 possibilities. Out of those 6 positions I have a feeling in my water that we ought to be better than average, so there’s 3 more eliminated.

If you’ve followed along so far you’ll be aware that through nothing more than a gut feeling I’ve whittled the potential finishing spot down to 5th, 6th or 7th. Well, we’ve finished the last two seasons in sixth place, there’s been some growth, let’s call it 5th shall we? 5th it is then. Easy!  I didn’t even need to consider the opposition.

I’m being silly of course, but we all do this sort of thing and there’s no harm in it. However, it can become harmful if we allow these silly predictions to become very real expectations. I’m not about to do that. I think my expectation of how Villa ought to be performing this season is as much about where we have come from as where we are going.

The term “5 year plan” has been casually thrown around in the last 3 years and I think it’s often taken a little too literally. I’ve always bought into the concept that a steady, gradual, planned growth over several years will take the club back to where it should be and, more importantly, give it the best chance of remaining there for many years. Spending hundreds of millions on some of the world’s best footballers might be very exciting, but I don’t think it’s going to help the club in the long term.

Some interesting thoughts from the General today at Vital Villa. I want to pull a paragraph out in full because he speaks in exactly the terms I’ve always understood the term “five year plan” to mean and exactly the way I think it should be done:-

I can assure you….and I think it was made pretty clear from the beginning…that the Board was not going to come into B’ham in 2006 and pull a Chelsea. That type of money…that type of spending…just was not something that we felt would be wise to do. We looked at the Club, the infrastructure, the distance we had to go and the ultimate goal we had (which consists of winning consistently with an exciting brand of football, a great ‘farm system (our youth squad), a world class training facility, and a plan to reach the highest levels of football and remain there over time), and we felt that the best approach to take was to be methodical in our approach. At no time did we really consider going on a $270M spending spree that might or might not guarantee success over the long term. For those fans who seek instant gratification…even though it might be fleeting….I am sorry.

I like the last sentence in particular.

Regardless of whether you take the five year plan completely literally or not, it’s a fact that we’re about to enter the fourth season since Randy Lerner acquired the club. It’s certainly a good opportunity to review where we’ve come from and assess whether we’re still heading in the right direction.

Here’s a summary of Villa’s performance across all competitions during “The Premiership Years”:-

I don’t think anyone could dispute that season 1 turned the club’s fortunes around. Season 2 was clearly an improvement on the first. But what about season 3, did the pattern of growth really continue?

It did, and I believe that the only doubt is caused by what might have been if it hadn’t been for the awful form in the final throws of the season. When a top 4 finish looked a very real possibility it was easy to forget that few would have predicted it at the start of the season.

At the risk of repeating myself from a previous post, it’s worth noting that last season we played an extra 12 competitive games over the previous season, 10 of them in Europe. In fact, it was the first time Villa were involved in more than 50 games since the turn of the century. We might not have won any silverware, or even cracked the top four, but we consolidated our position in the league and gave the entire squad some essential European experience. That’s sounds a lot like progress to me.

So that now leads us on to the fourth season; 2009/10. What can we really expect this time out? Well, I’ll address that question in part 2, coming soon.