It seems like a lifetime ago that our 2010/11 season kicked off amidst a mood of confusion and uncertainty with a surprisingly emphatic victory over West Ham at Villa Park. For the Hammers, it was a glimpse of the months that lay ahead for them. For us, it was very much a false dawn.

Of course, it was actually only eight months ago, but here we now are in the middle of April, West Ham occupy the relegation zone where they have been ensconced for much of the season, we are now five points clear in 14th place.

Some breathing room, yes, but we’re not safe yet. Thankfully much of the fear and panic induced negative energy that surrounded us for many weeks has subsided and a new air of optimism is the order of the day. There has been much debate over the nature of being a supporter – frankly, not something I’m willing to touch with a bargepole – but I think it’s clear that we’re all better off with a little positivity.

West Ham fans might argue differently.

Der Hammer and the glimmer of hope

Just a few weeks ago it seemed like there might be a glimmer of hope for them and it happened to coincide with the recovery of a certain Thomas Hitzlsperger who had missed the entire season after being snapped up on a free transfer during the summer.

Der Hammer got his first competitive start for West Ham at the end of February in a 5-1 destruction of Burnley in the FA Cup. That was followed by home wins over Liverpool (3-1) and Stoke (3-0) and the FA Cup exit in Stoke seemed to be a mere blip when followed up with holding Tottenham to a goalless draw at White Hart Lane.

Two early penalties against Man Utd must have provided visions of safety, buoyed by memories of their 4-0 Carling Cup victory over the title hopefuls. But we all know it’s a rare event that Ferguson’s side will roll over and, despite entering the final 25 minutes of the game 2-0 down, it shouldn’t have been a great surprise that Utd ended up 4-2 winners.

As a quick sidebar to that game; I’ve discovered that a good majority of Utd fans apparently can’t distinguish the difference between a pitch-side microphone randomly picking up a player swearing and Wayne Rooney standing in front of a camera projectile vomiting meaningless, almost incoherent, foul language directly into our living rooms.

But I digress.

West Ham went to Bolton last weekend knowing that they had to get a result to restore hope before entering the final half dozen games. They didn’t. They lost 3-0 at the Reebok, one half of an aggregate 6-1 beating at the hands of Owen Coyle. The first half of that double came in the match that followed the Villa Park game, web geeks might appreciate the HTML tag pairing symmetry:-

No? OK, just me then.

So what sort of side are we likely to encounter at Upton Park?

Excellent question, glad you asked! The short answer is ‘who knows?’ Sides at the bottom this time of year – and I don’t discount ourselves from that group yet – are like a wounded animal; you just don’t know how they’re going to behave. The weaker sides, fighting for their lives, often provide the toughest opponents at the business end of the season. We know this, it’s not a revelation I’m dropping on you here.

What I can tell you is West Ham’s home record is the root cause of their current position. Aside from decent wins against Tottenham and Liverpool, the only other sides they’ve taken three points from at home are Wigan, Wolves and Stoke. They’ve taken 19 points from 16 home games, ranking them 18th on home record alone.

That said, our away record also ranks 18th, taking an even less impressive 11 points from our 16 previous games on the road.

An unstoppable force meets and immovable object, then? If so, from that perspective, it’s got draw written all over it. Then again, it’s also a relegation dogfight and there’s just no legislating for what could happen.

Playing it safe

However, I’ve seen one or two signs that Houllier is hedging somewhat, playing the percentage game. The return to a more conventional 4-4-2 in recent games has certainly appeased the fans, although the results that came with it is what has really relieved some of the pressure.

Personally, I don’t think the results came because of the switch in system, but the old rule of correlation not implying causation will be completely lost of the majority of fans and Houllier would need cojones the size of Texas to venture away from the good old fashioned, meat and potatoes system during the run in.

Another sign of Houllier playing it a little safe came from the Express & Star’s Timothy Abraham who told us via Twitter that Petrov and Reo-Coker will start tomorrow, leading me to assume that Jean II Makoun will not.

Makoun’s been playing a little within himself since returning from the three match ban he picked up courtesy of his early bath in Blackpool. He’s had to learn the hard way what will and won’t fly in England and I sense some caution, perhaps a little nervousness, in his game now which has tempered a little of the obvious class he has.

It said a lot in the last game against Newcastle that Houllier not only recognised that the centre of the park could do with Reo-Coker’s presence, he also recognised that it was Makoun who should make way and made that very switch. Continuing that partnership into the next game is both smart squad management and a sign that Houllier isn’t willing to take too many chances at the moment.

I’d imagine Reo-Coker starting in Makoun’s place being the only change unless Gabby isn’t declared fit, in which case we’re bound to see Marc Albrighton returning to the starting eleven. As I’ve already said, all things are not equal, but if they were I’d expect a result very much in line with the last couple of games; either fair stalemate or a tight, but deserved victory.

A loss isn’t completely unthinkable, but it would definitely pick the scab of goodwill off the wound of panic and despair among the fan base, restoring the perilous outlook for the final five games. A win will extend the gap between ourselves and West Ham to an extremely comfortable eight points, a point would retain the current five point gap and a loss would reduce the gap to just two points.

Obviously.

Would you take a point?

We’re all fond of claiming with hindsight that we would have taken a point if offered one before kick off – something that’s never actually happened as far as I’m aware – but I’ll say it now with foresight; a point would be better than the slap on the belly with a wet fish right now.

I’d take it, how about you?