If you had asked me a little over a year ago to name the eight teams most likely to fill the top eight places in the Premier League come May I would have said; Liverpool, Everton, Man Utd, Man City, Aston Villa, Tottenham, Arsenal and Chelsea. Not in that order, obviously.

Then our manager skipped off into the sunset and the season that followed will last in the memory for many years. For all the wrong reasons. Still, thanks to a late rally, and a slice of luck, by the end of the season we finished 9th. There was just a single point and goal difference keeping us away from 8th; Fulham being the gatecrasher to the “predicted” top eight.

So, despite all the crazy, the major players all ended up more or less where you’d have expected them to be before a ball had been kicked. Give or take.

Top eight 2011/12

Broadly speaking, it’s same again this year in terms of predictions as far as I’m concerned. Sorry. Sure, Aston Villa are the vulnerable member of this pack. Assuming we do cling on to the pack, we’ll more than likely be among the stragglers at the back most in danger of getting picked off.

It’s hard not to imagine that Everton will be far away either. If they manage to catch up after their usual poor start that is. That’s a pretty big ‘IF‘, it has to be said, Everton aren’t in good shape at all, but Moyes does have that annoying habit of quietly getting it done.

I’m not sure what to make of Liverpool or Tottenham at the moment, but both look stronger than us. The Scousers have raised some eyebrows with some of the money they’ve thrown around – some in our direction – but I think they’re being run by a group of people who do have a strong plan, despite how it might look.

Arsenal, by their own standards, seem to be in danger of imploding right now, but it’s difficult to imagine them not in the mix for Champions League places. Difficult, but not impossible. There’s potential for the wheels to well and truly fall off the Wenger Wagon this season. Definitely one to watch.

So, we’re left with a three horse race for the title between the two Manchester clubs and Chelsea. There will be many twists and turns along the way, the Champions League will surely be a significant distraction for City, but I wouldn’t be at all surprised if they do end up winning the league this year.

That said, the experience on the red side of the city will count for a lot and if it’s tight, Ferguson will always edge it.

The chasing pack

So who are the teams most likely to spoil this “top eight club” then?

Well, Fulham and Newcastle should be there or thereabouts for starters. The potential stick in the spokes being Fulham’s attention span while in Europe and Newcastle’s ability to be, well, simply mental.

Sunderland, Bolton and Stoke will keep them honest with West Brom being little more than a spoiler I feel; Woy’s “new manager effect” long since worn off.

Blackburn are basically the Premier League’s equivalent of beige. I actually missed them out when I first wrote this and it wasn’t until I spotted West Brom listed twice in the table at the bottom that I found I’d missed Blackburn out. Bottom half somewhere then.

There are a lot of question marks over all of these clubs for various reasons, but I actually quite fancy Bolton to be the dark horse that appears on the rail as the winter fades in early 2012.

The bottom five

Wolves and Wigan should struggle again, but I’m not convinced that any of the three newly promoted sides have enough in them to avoid being in the bottom three after 38 games.

Swansea could easily be one of those sides that flatter to deceive early on, before fading badly towards the end. QPR looked strong last season, particularly defensively, but I can’t see them being able to resist that horrific run-in we covered yesterday. Norwich might well be the side capable of nicking it, but it will be tight.

Experience wise, Norwich were last in the top flight in 2005, QPR in 1996 and Swansea back in 1983; this is their first visit to the Premier League then. As weak as Wigan are, especially without N’Zogbia, it’s really difficult to see any of the new boys having the fortitude to resist the drop.

Head on the chopping block: The final table

Breaking these broad groups down into final finishing positions comes down to nothing more sophisticated than gut instinct. On that basis then, this is what my magical intestinal system tells me:

Deluded? Crazy? Quite possibly. But we’ve got 34,200 minutes of 22 blokes hoofing around a lump of leather to get through over the next ten months before we know the final outcome of the table for real; just about anything can happen!