If you’ve followed the James Milner storyline close enough you will have been aware that Randy Lerner flew into Birmingham ahead of last weekend, setting tongues wagging that the overly drawn out transfer would be wrapped up post haste. Then he flew back to America, on Sunday I think, and the conventional wisdom was that the deal was done, more or less, it was just about crossing the T’s and dotting the I’s.

Then the international break got in the way. Thursday, it will be put to bed on Thursday. Definitely Thursday.

Martin O’Neill reportedly oversaw training on Monday morning with the players who were not away on international duty and afterward had a meeting with the Chief Executive, Paul Faulkner. Not long after that, following some exchanging of letters between lawyers, Martin O’Neill had resigned. The players found out the same we did, from the news sources during the afternoon.

Randy Lerner flew back to Birmingham over night. He and his senior management team, including Paul Faulkner, will obviously now be focused on recruiting Martin O’Neill’s successor, something I hope they take their time to get right, they can’t afford to get it wrong. In fairness, the manager selection process is not something they have experience of and this will be a massive test of their mettle.

You Got To Know When To Hold’em

Nevertheless, within a matter of minutes, the bookies were drawing up a list of candidates and informing us of the odds. Bob Bradley somehow emerged as a “favourite” before Randy was even on a plane. His odds have been slashed overnight I’m told and he’s now the “front runner”. Oh really?

People mistake the odds quoted by bookies for probability. “The bookies are not often wrong” I’ve seen people exclaiming. No, the bookies don’t often get taken to the cleaners is more accurate. The house always wins. Hand them your money in exchange for a betting slip with the American national team manager’s name on it if you wish, eventually all you’ll own is a piece of worthless paper that says “Bob Bradley”.

At this stage, I’m going to take my own advice and give some real thought to who I’d like to see take over the reigns, not that my own opinion counts for anything. One essential criteria I have though is that whoever comes in must be able to take the considerable legacy left by Martin O’Neill and extract the maximum potential, probably without being able to add much.

Know When To Fold’em

That might seem like a ridiculously obvious point to make, given the timing and what we think we know right now, but most managers will want to build their own team and that takes time. O’Neill has spent four years building his team and there is clearly plenty of quality in there along with players who haven’t had much of a look in, but are perfectly capable of playing a bigger part in our season. Yes, there’s also some dead wood, like most squads, we’re not unique in that respect.

The potential remains and it’s a perfectly valid criticism that MON didn’t use his squad to anything close to its full extent. No one will know the capabilities of the reserve team players better than Kevin MacDonald and his success with the reserves in the last few years deserves full respect and our backing as he steadies the ship at senior first team level.

Something that’s starting to look a certainty at this stage is that things will get ugly. Disgruntled players will have their say as will “sources” inside the club. MON will no doubt use his considerable PR expertise to add his own in time. It was interesting to note General Krulak being equally specific in countering MON’s claim not to be involved in the Milner deal. Someone’s not being entirely forthcoming, but the truth will not be found in places like the Daily Mirror, Goal.com or Tribal Football.

Oh yes, it’s going to get ugly and publications like those will happily fan the flames. For my part, I’ll stick as close as I can to my policy of not speculating about things I have no direct knowledge of or no real evidence to rely on.

Know When To Walk Away And Know When To Run

And if you wanted any proof of the pathetic pop-culture nature that prevails in journalism these days, check out the Mail’s request for Tom Hanks’ opinion of Bob Bradley on Twitter:-

These are the people bringing us the “news”. Treat it with extreme caution. Same goes for the bookies.

Here’s today’s soundtrack:-