We’ve played 36 games. We have two left; Man City at Eastlands and Blackburn at Villa Park. We have 64 points. Regardless of what happens in those two games, this season will be the second best performance in 18 years of the Premier League. Only 1992/93, the very first EPL season, was better.

And some people believe that Martin O’Neill has taken us as far as he can? Really?

One thing to consider is that there were 22 teams in the Premiership for the first 3 seasons, which means each side played 42 games in a season. If you wanted to draw comparisons, you could simply cut those seasons off at 38 games, but that’s not a particularly fair comparison if you happen to be cutting out some really poor performances. The only fair comparison is to create a points per game calculation, that takes into account a full season in all cases.

We finished the 1992/93 season, after 42 games, with 74 points which equates to 1.76 points per game. So far this season we have 64 points from 36 games, or 1.78 points per game. Best case scenario, i.e. winning our remaining games, will mean we finish the season with a 1.84 ratio. Worst case, i.e. losing our last two matches, means we’ll finish with 1.68 points per game.

It’s entirely possible that on a points per game basis that this could be the best Premiership performance to date. I thought it might be interesting to look a little further back than 1992/93. To do that, you have to appreciate that it wasn’t until after our title winning season that a win was rewarded with 3 points. Up until 1981 it was actually 2 points for a win and 1 for a draw.

It’s not difficult to recalculate those seasons based on 3 points for a win and then create a comparable points per game figure. In fact, it’s very easy. Don’t worry, we still won the title with the points recalculated!

Worst Case Scenario

OK, worst case; we lose our final two games and finish the season on 64 points, or 1.68 points per game. In the 99 seasons that Aston Villa have competed in the top flight, that would rank as the 23rd best season. Not bad, but consider that only 9 of the 22 seasons that rank better occurred in the last 100 years, meaning that this would be the 10th best season in the last 100 years, and it looks a bit better.

That’s the worst case scenario, remember.

Best Case Scenario

Best case; we win our last two games. 70 points, 38 games, 1.84 points per game.

If that happens, only 11 top flight seasons would rank higher and, of those, only 3 occurred in the last 100 years. 1980/81, obviously. The other two being 1930/31 and 1910/11. How much relevance do you attach to pre-World War II seasons? Me? Not a lot.

I Got 99 Seasons

Here’s all of Aston Villa’s 99 top flight seasons in order of points per game. Actually, there’s 100 here as I’ve shown both the best and worst case scenarios for 2009/10, so it appears twice. By the way, if you’re curious about how David O’Leary’s final season (2005/06) measures up, keep scrolling!

If you like, you can play a fun game where you scroll back up noting how each of the last 4 seasons is placed higher on this graph than the previous season. It’s kind of like, how would you say? Progress?