I’ve talked for some time now about needing to hit a theoretical safety threshold of 43 points by the 36th game, essentially writing off our last two games against Arsenal and Liverpool. As it happens, West Brom occupy the final position offering mathematical safety today; 13th place with 43 points.

We’ve fallen a point shy and head a group of seven teams capable of suffering relegation. Mathematically speaking. Leading the group, as we do, we’re the least likely to go down of course, it would take some extraordinary results for the trapdoor to open beneath us, but it’s not impossible.

Improbable? yes. Impossible? no.

Here’s how the bottom seven of the table looks:

And these are the remaining fixtures for all seven sides:

It’s important to remember that the 43 point safety threshold is as things stand today, it will probably all be different this time next week and we’ll likely be mathematically safe regardless of what happens at the Emirates. However, even if we do fail to pick up a point in our final two matches and all the other result do go against us, we still have a significant goal difference to act as a cushion.

The worst set of results I can envision is; Villa losing against Arsenal and Liverpool; Blackburn beating Man Utd, but losing to Wolves; Birmingham beating Fulham and Tottenham; Wolves beating Sunderland and Blackburn; Blackpool beating Bolton and Man Utd; Wigan beating West Ham and Stoke; and West Ham losing to Wigan, but beating Sunderland.

That just isn’t going to happen, but if it did; Birmingham would come out on top with 45 points, Wolves just behind with 43. West Ham would be bottom with 33 points and then it would come down to goal difference to pick two from Villa, Blackburn, Blackpool and Wigan all on 42 points.

Which three will drop?

So, realistically, I have to exclude ourselves from the group of teams in any real danger, the three point advantage over Blackburn and goal difference gap to the teams at the very bottom will be enough regardless of what happens.

But I’m really struggling to pick three from the remain six. I can’t see West Ham making it, but beyond that I can’t call it. Wigan vs West Ham is huge and will have a major influence, but it’s going to come down to four or five teams in real danger on the last day, surely.

So, who do you see going down? I know there’s one team in there we’d probably all take a great deal of pleasure in waving goodbye to, but which three do you really think will go?