I ran this as a regular feature last year and I don’t see any reason for it not to continue. I find it interesting at least. Same premise as before, which was explained in #01 if it’s not immediately obvious, the only change being the mapping of the three promoted and three relegated teams:-

• Newcastle = Burnley
• WBA = Hull
• Portsmouth = Blackpool

That reflects their finishing positions in the respective leagues.

You’ll probably be aware that last season, after five games, we had 12 points and if you’d have been offered that before playing Wigan, Liverpool, Fulham, Birmingham and Portsmouth, you’d probably have taken it gladly. This season, we have seven points from the same number of games, but would you have been happy with that if offered it before playing West Ham, Newcastle, Everton, Stoke and Bolton?

Perhaps if the phrase I seem to be turning to all the time lately, ‘under the circumstances’, is appended it becomes more palatable. Kevin MacDonald made mistakes for sure, but it could have been a whole lot worse and we have a lot to be grateful for.  KMac certainly stepped into the breach, I’m glad he did and happy he’s staying with us.

Interestingly, using the apples for apples comparison, we’re actually slightly ahead of last year:-

The only subjective element that could take a little of the shine off that fact is that four of the corresponding games from last year used in the apples comparison were games that were particularly disappointing: the 2-1 loss at West Ham, plus draws away to Stoke and Burnley and, arguably, the 2-2 draw at home against Everton.

Maybe the fact that we’ve squeezed one single additional point from those same fixtures this year provides little to be excited about, but then there’s those circumstances to factor in.

I’m including projections of total season points, plus goals scored and conceded based on extrapolating the ‘per game’ metrics and ratios. Obviously, at this stage, after just five games, that’s highly unlikely to be very accurate, but as we go on and the projections are based on increasing amounts of actual data, it will give a clearer picture of the probable outcome in May.

However, it’s important to remember that predicting the future is impossible, it doesn’t matter how much historical data we have, it’s merely an indication of what will happen if we continue at the same “pace” and everything else remains equal. The chances of which are slim to none.

The point of interest from the projections is that I can look to the past and tell you in the seasons since the Premier League has been reduced to 20 teams and played over 38 games, the best that 53 points has achieved is 7th [Fulham (2008/09), Charlton (2003/04), West Ham (2001/02)]. Bolton finished in 8th with 53 points in 2003/04 and Tottenham and Leicester both placed 10th with 53 points in 1999/00 and 1997/98 respectively.

The short version is that we need to pick up the pace. Over to you Gérard.