In ordinary circumstances we’d look at the last four fixtures (Hull, Fulham, Boro & Newcastle) and see plenty of points for the taking. Villa haven’t won a game in any competition since February 7th, so ordinary circumstances these are not.

I haven’t seen much more than the opening minutes of this game, so I’ll reserve commentary until I’ve watched it. On the surface it looks like another game where we’ve done enough to deserve the win, but have lacked the cutting edge up front and switched off at the back long enough to give up a couple of points.

Ashley Young put Villa ahead in slightly fortuitous fashion just before half time when his cross from the left corner of the box floated over John Carew’s head and continued on it’s path, right into the back of the net. Tamir Cohen canceled that goal on the hour mark after volleying in a ball pinging around the box following a free kick. The sort of opportunistic goal Villa continually gift opposition with lately through lacklustre defensive work. We’re definitely missing a leader at the back, no question.

Probably the best news of today was that Everton lost 2-1 at home to Man City – the game I was watching in lieu of watching the Villa – so we’ve actually managed to double our slender lead to two points. Their run-in is arguably slightly tougher than ours and they’ll have more than half an eye on their season closing game in the FA Cup Final, so we ought to be able to remain ahead of Everton – assuming we can start winning games again!!

Even the most optimistic of us will have to now accept that a top four finish will allude us this year. Even though Arsenal still have to face both Chelsea & Man Utd, plus Utd twice more in the Champions League, their 4-4 at Anfield this week showed they’ve more than enough grit not to let a 7 point lead slip.

So there you have it. After our record unbeaten run of 13 leagues games, earning 31 points, Villa have now only picked up 4 points in the last 9 games. I’m thinking that we’ll probably need to take around 9 points from the last 4 games to remain ahead of Everton and secure fifth place.