SAD Fact: Beware The Ides Of March
Written by Dan on February 3, 2010
I was reading an interesting article at The Telegraph last night about Gabby Agbonlahor’s goal scoring record during the Winter months:-
The evidence is compelling: 10 goals in total in the 2006/07 season, but only two scored between November ‘06 and April ‘07. 11 goals in the 2007/08 season, but none between January and end of March ’08. 12 goals last season, but just two after Christmas. So when he went six games without scoring after Villa’s 1-0 win at Old Trafford this season, in mid-December, it was a case of ‘what’s new?’
His brace at Craven Cottage was more timely than was immediately obvious then. As he’s already equaled his best season’s goal tally, let’s hope he now goes on to blow his record out the water and in the process stake a serious claim to be on the plane to South Africa in the summer.
I checked into Gabby’s statistics and they stacked up with the Telegraph piece, but it got me curious about how Aston Villa have performed in general in the Premiership on a month by month basis. What I found surprised me a little.
Since 1992 it’s actually October that we have seen the lowest percentage of wins, but in terms of points earned out of those available; it’s The Ides Of March that have done for Villa over the years.
| Aston Villa Premiership Performance by Month – All Time | |||||||
| Month | Pld | %Win | %Draw | %Lose | Avbl Pts | Pts | %Pts of Avbl |
| August | 67 | 41.8% | 31.3% | 26.9% | 201 | 105 | 52.2% |
| September | 67 | 46.3% | 28.4% | 25.4% | 201 | 112 | 55.7% |
| October | 64 | 26.6% | 39.1% | 34.4% | 192 | 76 | 39.6% |
| November | 72 | 43.1% | 25.0% | 31.9% | 216 | 111 | 51.4% |
| December | 96 | 34.4% | 32.3% | 33.3% | 288 | 130 | 45.1% |
| January | 65 | 41.5% | 29.2% | 29.2% | 195 | 100 | 51.3% |
| February | 60 | 45.0% | 21.7% | 33.3% | 180 | 94 | 52.2% |
| March | 67 | 26.9% | 28.4% | 44.8% | 201 | 73 | 36.3% |
| April | 87 | 37.9% | 37.9% | 24.1% | 261 | 132 | 50.6% |
| May | 36 | 36.1% | 19.4% | 44.4% | 108 | 46 | 42.6% |
| Totals | 681 | 37.9% | 30.1% | 32.0% | 2043 | 979 | 47.9% |
OK, that’s Aston Villa’s record all time in the Premiership. Is it any better under Martin O’Neill? In a word; no. Actually it’s quite terrible. Aston Villa have not won a single league game under Martin O’Neill during March! Yes, you read that correctly and it’s a shockingly bad statistic that has to change this year if we aim to finish in the mix for European places.
| Aston Villa Premiership Performance by Month – MON Years | |||||||
| Month | Pld | %Win | %Draw | %Lose | Avbl Pts | Pts | %Pts of Avbl |
| August | 12 | 50.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 36 | 21 | 58.3% |
| September | 13 | 61.5% | 23.1% | 15.4% | 39 | 27 | 69.2% |
| October | 15 | 26.7% | 53.3% | 20.0% | 45 | 20 | 44.4% |
| November | 18 | 44.4% | 33.3% | 22.2% | 54 | 30 | 55.6% |
| December | 23 | 39.1% | 26.1% | 34.8% | 69 | 33 | 47.8% |
| January | 15 | 46.7% | 40.0% | 13.3% | 45 | 27 | 60.0% |
| February | 7 | 57.1% | 0.0% | 42.9% | 21 | 12 | 57.1% |
| March | 12 | 0.0% | 41.7% | 58.3% | 36 | 5 | 13.9% |
| April | 14 | 42.9% | 50.0% | 7.1% | 42 | 25 | 59.5% |
| May | 8 | 37.5% | 37.5% | 25.0% | 24 | 12 | 50.0% |
| Totals | 137 | 40.1% | 34.3% | 25.5% | 411 | 212 | 51.6% |
When you compare the all time monthly Win/Draw/Loss percentages with the last few seasons under MON, it’s quite telling that March is the only month that the current gaffer doesn’t have a superior record. However, when you look at the fixture list for this year you have to have some hope:-
- March 6th – Sunderland, Home
- March 13th – Stoke, Away
- March 16th – Wigan, Away
- March 20th – Wolves, Home
- March 27th – Chelsea, Away
Leading into this sequence, the final game of February, you’ll not need reminding is the Carling Cup final against Man Utd. Yes, the confidence we would pick up should we win the trophy would be an enormous boost going into March, but this is a very kind schedule and we ought to find at least one win here regardless of what happens at Wembley.
Surely? Right??