Martin O’Neill has set the bar pretty high for himself.  Around this time last year I was able to proudly proclaim our best ever Premiership season at that stage with 41 points from 21 games.  I also predicted that we wouldn’t trail off during the remainder of the season, so the least said about that the better I think.  I’m due to update the comparison of this season versus last season series shortly, so I won’t get into that here, but it’s impossible to ignore the fact that we’re at the same stage of having played 21 games, but this time out we’re sitting on just 36 points.

I say just 36 points, but only 2008/09 (41 points) and 1998/99 (40 points) were better, although we also had 36 points at the same stage in 2007/08 and 1995/96.  When you consider that the average at this stage so far this century prior to MON’s arrival was only 27 points, we’re not too badly off at all right now.

But we’re surely all hungry for more and want to see the pattern of growth and improvement continue.  The apparent inability to score goals in the last few games may well fuel fears of another collapse in form during the second half of the season, but I’m willing to stick my head on the chopping block and predict that we’ll finish this season with more points than last season.  I’m not sure by how many though.

It’s the lack of goals that I want to focus on here.  The obvious solution on everyone’s lips, especially as we’re in January, is that we need a new striker.  It seems obvious really, doesn’t it?  Ignoring Occam’s razor for a moment, I’d like to suggest that that solution may well be so obvious that it’s wrong.  Based on my own comment from the Aston Villa vs West Ham Statshack I’ve delved a little deeper.

two seasons ago there were a fair few calls for the “20 a season” striker, but it really wasn’t necessary as we were scoring for fun and spreading the goals around the team isn’t exactly a bad thing in my mind. our problem was we were shipping too many at the back.

our lack of goals now doesn’t make much sense. we’ve addressed the weakness at the back. i think we’re stronger in the middle too, certainly going forward. yes, the lack of firepower hasn’t really been addressed, but that’s not where the goals were coming from in the past anyway, so why is it now the source of our problems?

the only answer i can come up with is that more opponents are paying us the respect of not over committing themselves going forward, denying our attacking players the space they need to be effective. without goals coming from set plays, we lack the tools necessary to open up a stubborn opponent and though our team of today is clearly better than the one from two years ago, its offensive weapons are being cancelled out.

That may have been the only answer I could come up with when I wrote that, but I’ve got one or two other ideas now.

It’s A Game Of Two Halves

Over the past couple of seasons I’ve become comfortable in the knowledge that Aston Villa are very much a second half team. Rarely overly concerned by a poor first half performance, I knew the team would play with some purpose in the second half. I can’t say for certain whether MON sent his team out to take it easy during the first half and then respond after the break, or whether they needed that talking to at half time, or whether it was due to any of the thousands of other explanations.

This season has been different. It’s slowly starting to feel like we’re now a first half team. Any stats site which shows a half time table proves this, plus there’s been several games where the side look like they’ve completely run out of steam in the latter stages of the game.

I decided to pull some data together from recent seasons looking at goals scored during the first and second halves, plus the same for goals conceded to see if the data backed up my assessment and here’s what I found:-

* The 2009/10 data shown above only covers the first 21 games, but the rest of the preceding seasons represent a full 38 games. The average figures shown do not include 2009/10.

Well, my feeling that we are doing better in the first half of games this season is borne out by the majority of goals being scored in the first half. It may be tight at 52%, but it’s quite a swing from the preceding two seasons.

However, the feeling that the goals have dried up seems slightly premature since the rate of 1.38 goals per game so far this season is very comparable with last season’s overall 1.42, but does fade in comparison to the 1.87 achieved in 2007/08. That said, 1.87 is a bit special in Villa’s history and I’d be forced to prove that I have data from before the Premiership existed to find a better figure – 1.88 in 1974/75. But that was in the old 2nd Division, you have to go all the way back ’51/52 to find a better return of goals to games in the top flight – George Martin’s side also achieved 1.88 in the old 1st Division.

Stingy Defense

It’s been suggested that without one of the best defensive units in the Premiership we’d be a mid-table side. Maybe, maybe not, but there’s no doubting the quality of defenders and goalkeepers as they’ve only conceded 18 goals so far this season. A feat matched by Chelsea, but bettered by none.

However, without wanting to be overly critical, when you consider that 7 of those goals have come in the last 15 minutes of games, it adds weight to my premise that the team are apparently running out of steam late on. As the following table shows, the ratio of goals conceded in the second half has shifted considerably from the previous seasons.

I probably shouldn’t look a gift horse in the mouth since those defensive numbers are very impressive, but it’s sensible to conclude that there is room for improvement during the last 15 minutes. I ought to concede that no Villa side has finished a top flight season with a goals conceded per game ratio below the 0.88 achieved by George Ramsey’s side in 1924. If we can maintain this 0.86 ratio to the end of the season, whether we concede in the first or last minute, we’ll be doing very, very well.

Which brings us back to goals at the other end.

Patience

Though I love football statistics, I’ll be the first to caution against believing that any single set of statistics can reveal the full nature of any problem. I should also remind you of the golden rule that correlation does not imply causation, so don’t fall into that trap.

However, the data above does lend credibility to my notion that this side are simply trying too hard in the first half and in some senses are burning themselves out. To come back to the comment I quoted at the top of the page, it surely does not make sense that a team that couldn’t stop scoring two seasons ago, but was weak defensively, should fix the weakness at the back, strengthen the middle too, yet somehow are unable to score so freely anymore.

My feeling might be conjecture, but as I suggested in the West Ham Statshack, it seems to me that our opponents are sussing out how to shut down our attacking options and we’re effectively wearing ourselves out, frantically trying to find an opening. But by focusing so intently on shutting down our wing play, they will always give up dead ball situations in useful positions and these are the key opportunities to open up stubborn opposition.

Again, it may be speculative, but as an example, I’m convinced that West Ham would have played very differently had we managed to put away a corner or free kick early on. I’m of the opinion that the likes of Gabby and Ash would have enjoyed a bit more freedom as West Ham chased the game and then I could easily see us adding a couple more goals. A 2 or 3 goal win and I more than likely wouldn’t be writing this.

I would suggest that there were one or two moments during that game when Heskey’s unselfishness appeared more like fear to take responsibility himself, but aside from that I’m not sure what difference another striker would have made. Carew did a good job of following up Downing’s shot to knock in the rebound, but could he be criticized for allowing himself to stray offside? Gabby had a chance in injury time that you’d expect a top quality striker to make a lot more of, but would we be guaranteed 3 points had someone like Jermaine Defoe been wearing Gabby’s shirt at that moment? Who knows?

Forgive me for returning to the point once more that we scored a shed load of goals two seasons ago and the side we have now is, in my mind at least, considerably stronger all round. The reason we’re struggling for goals doesn’t necessarily lie with the strikers, but just as likely with a wastefully frenetic pace during the first half of the games.

I’ve a feeling that if we can just slow it down a little during the first 45 minutes, at the risk of sounding cliched; play smarter, not harder, we may well find ourselves grabbing that all important first goal. I remain convinced that there are goals in abundance from the likes of Gabby, Ash, Milner and Downing, if we can just find a way to play to their strengths.

And I’ll finish on a potentially controversial note. Let’s say I’m on the right track here and we do need to approach at least the first half of the game with less exuberance. A little less frantic energy expelled before the break would set us up for a strong second half. Let’s say that’s correct. Now, here’s a potential problem…

…can you imagine James Milner playing any other way?